Power Divide: Ruto and Raila Camps Reject Sharing
President William Ruto and Azimio la Umoja One Kenya leader Raila Odinga have unveiled their teams for the talks to address the country’s impasse resulting from months of protests over the cost of living and the 2022 elections, despite maintaining hardline positions in advance of the negotiations.
President Ruto remained circumspect regarding the talks on August 2, 2023, declining to take queries on the subject during his State House address in Nairobi, in which he discussed matters related to reducing the high cost of living, an issue the opposition insists must be at the top of the agenda for the talks. “Let’s not go there,” he replied in response to a query about the negotiations.
The President’s briefing took place mere minutes after his Kenya Kwanza side unveiled its five-member negotiating team, which will be commanded by National Assembly Majority Leader Kimani Ichung’wah.
It includes Senate Majority Leader Aaron Cheruiyot, Embu Governor Cecily Mbarire, Bungoma Woman Representative Catherine Wambilianga, and a member of the East Africa Legislative Assembly named Hassan Omar.
The coalition of Mr. Odinga had previously unveiled its team, which will be commanded by Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka in the negotiations to be led by former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo. National Assembly Minority Leader Opiyo Wandayi, DAP-Kenya Leader Eugene Wamalwa, Nyamira Senator Okong’o Omogeni, and Malindi MP Amina Mnyazi are the other members of the committee.
However, even as the government and opposition prepare their forces, they remain anxious about the possibility of a Handshake or nusu State government.
Nusu mkate refers to a coalition government or a government of national unity similar to the Grand Coalition Government that brought together Mr. Odinga and former President Mwai Kibaki after the controversial 2007 presidential election.
ALSO READ: Kenya Kwanza’s Approach to Talks Not Clean – Etale
On the other hand, Handshake is a term that was coined after the truce between Mr. Odinga and former President Uhuru Kenyatta on March 9, 2018, which concluded months of political unrest in the country following the disputed presidential elections of August 2017.
On Wednesday (2 August), Mr. Ichung’wah publicly conveyed Kenya Kwanza’s reservations regarding the issue and insisted that it would not be discussed during the negotiations.
Mr. Ichung’wah stated in a statement, “As agreed, there will be no discussions of any kind regarding the handshake and Aunt Sate.”
Mr. lchung’wah reaffirmed Kenya Kwanza’s commitment to discuss only five points, which he noted had been agreed upon by the two teams during their initial meeting with Mr. Obasanjo.
However, Azimio referred to the five as “Kenya Kwanza concerns.” Mr. Ichung’wah stated that the Kenya Kwanza team will adhere to the reconstitution of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), the implementation of the two-thirds gender rule, the enshrining of the Constituency Development Fund (CDF) in the constitution, and the enshrining of the Office of the Leader of the Opposition and Prime Cabinet Secretary in the constitution.
However, Azimio insisted that the cost of living, inclusivity, audit of the 2022 elections, reconstitution of the IEBC, accountability, and responsibility for police brutality and violations of human rights, and respect for the autonomy and independence of political parties be included in the negotiations.
“Our position remains that no party to these negotiations has the right to tell the other party what to raise and what not to raise.” Azimio will respect Kenya Kwanza’s freedom to discuss all of its concerns. Mr. Wandayi stated, “We expect Kenya Kwanza to do the same with our issues.”
ALSO READ: Ruto Dodges Azimio Talks Query in Press Conference
Despite their differences, both factions appear to adhere to the same power-sharing script.
Even though Mr. Odinga’s camp maintains that it is not seeking a coalition government, President Ruto’s camp believes that by including “inclusivity” in the agenda, “their objective is to join the government through the back door.”
Mr. Ichungrwah stated, “Kenyans made their choice at the polls in the August 2012 elections, and we will not discuss anything related to the nusu mkate government.”
The representative stated, “We will not accept this, and if they do not accept the five issues we have presented, they should return to the streets.”
Lacking enthusiasm
However, Mr. Wandayi insisted that they had no desire to join the government. “We have repeatedly stated that we have no interest in handshakes or nusu mkate. He told GossipA2Z, “We want Kenya Kwanza to run its government while we keep it in check.”
Insiders in both factions are uneasy about Mr. Odinga’s camp’s inclusion in the government. Macharia Munene, a professor at the United States International University, explains that the fear originates from past events, with many frightened of being “sacrificed on the altar of a Ruto and Raila deal cutting.” “Both nusu mkate and handshake… were accomplished by sacrificing or attempting to sacrifice the powers and influence of particular individuals. For example, nusu mkate sacrificed Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka and Kibaki’s PNU Cabinet,” said Professor Munene.
Additionally, he argued that the Handshake sacrificed Dr. Ruto’s position as Vice President and certain Jubilee Party leaders to accommodate Mr. Odinga’s team.
ALSO READ: Kenya Kwanza’s Top 5 Delegates Revealed for Ruto-Raila Talks
“The agreement that will be reached will render political ‘prima donnas’ on both sides irrelevant.” Prof. Winnie Mitullah stated, “Handshake signifies gaining and losing power based on one’s position, so the unease is well-founded.”
Dismas Mokua, a political analyst, stated that Kenya Kwanza’s position is based on the fact that the presidential elections were conclusive and that anyone interested in the presidency should prepare for the elections in 2027.
“They believe that accepting a nusu mkate arrangement will render presidential elections pointless and establish a precedent that rewards political violence,” Mr. Mokua explained.
According to him, Azimio is concealing its desire to join the government by fighting food inflation and the rising cost of living.
“Fighting food inflation and high cost of living does not merit international mediator-facilitated bipartisan dialogue.” “Kenya has the institutions and leadership to combat food inflation and a high cost of living,” he said.
The opposition is concerned that Mr. Odinga’s friendship with President Ruto could diminish the influence of certain senior government officials, including Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, who is viewed as the “greatest threat to the talks.”
An MP told GossipA2Z, “There is a widespread belief among supporters of the DP that Mr. Odinga’s entry could render him irrelevant, which is why he has unleashed his close allies to push the hardline stance.”
In the same way that the Grand Coalition Government resulted in the inclusion of Mr. Odinga’s team in the government, there are concerns that power-sharing may result in the marginalization of important Kenya Kwanza leaders.
ALSO READ: Azimio Selects ‘Ruto Talks’ Team: 5 Members Chosen
This could lead to the emergence of new power brokers and even neutralize pro-government dissidents among the opposition.
“In such an arrangement, not even Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi will be able to rest easy, as there will be horse-trading. Raila, meanwhile, will enjoy State largesse and even rise to power before the 2027 elections.” This typically occurs during a president’s second and final term, as in the cases of Kibaki and Uhuru, so President Ruto is unlikely to permit it, according to another Kenya Kwanza lawmaker.
“Sense of insecurity”
Mr. Wandayi argued that “the obsession with government sharing by a wing of Kenya Kwanza stems from a sense of insecurity.”
However, Mr. Odinga’s inner circle is hesitant about him joining the Kenya Kwanza administration “out of fear that he will carry its baggage.”
“Joining the Kenya Kwanza government could diminish Raila’s reputation as a champion of the people. A member of the opposition stated, “He has emerged as the last man standing in defense of the people amid the rising cost of living, and any attempts to join the government will leave the hustlers on their own after President Ruto appeared to abandon them by raising taxes.”
ALSO READ: Azimio PG Meeting Resolutely Commits to Kenya Kwanza Talks
There are also concerns that if Mr. Odinga accepts a share of the Kenya Kwanza government, he will be portrayed as a power-hungry individual, which could result in an Azimio fallout.
If Mr. Odinga wishes to run in the 2027 elections, he may also be burdened by the baggage of incumbency. After Handshake, Kenya Kwanza leaders have continued to associate Mr. Odinga with the failures of the Jubilee government.
In addition, some concerns entering into a working relationship with the government will diminish the influence of the opposition in Parliament. Timothy Bosire, national treasurer of the ODM, argued that a portion of Kenya Kwanza leaders appears to be threatened by the possibility of Azimio “capturing” the President through the negotiations.
Mr. Bosire stated, “They want to continue capturing and controlling the President rather than putting the nation’s interests first.” The former member of parliament proposed a “snap election” to be overseen by the international community to resolve the contentious issues in the country “since there are fears over the talks.”
“Server issues can be addressed more effectively by reaching out to the international community to hold a snap election.” This is the only way we can address presidential legitimacy and national unity, Mr. Bosire stated.
Power Divide: Ruto and Raila Camps Reject Sharing