Raila’s Shifting Inner Circle in the Battle Against Ruto
Raila Odinga, the leader of the opposition party Azimio. Has intensified his opposition to President William Ruto amid a revolving door of allies.
Eleven months after the August 9 election. In which he was supported by state machinery and political weapons from across the country. Including then-President Uhuru Kenyatta, Mr. Odinga must contend with a shifting kitchen cabinet in his renewed confrontation with President Ruto.
Several prominent election campaigners have abandoned Mr. Odinga and joined the Kenya Kwanza Alliance administration in power. Others have chosen not to participate in anti-government demonstrations.
Several Nyanza legislators have declared their support for Dr. Ruto, exposing Mr. Odinga to a political assault by the ruling coalition.
In the opposition Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Coalition, however, politicians committed to Mr. Odinga’s decades-long campaign for “electoral reforms and good governance” have emerged.
Mr. Odinga’s corner are his running mate in 2022, Martha Karua, Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka, Democratic Action Party -Kenya (DAP-K) leader Eugene Wamalwa, Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) Deputy Party Leader Wycliffe Oparanya, National Assembly Minority Leader Opiyo Wandayi, and ODM Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna.
In his inner entourage are also Jubilee Secretary-General Jeremiah Kioni, the former governor of Murang’a, Mwangi wa Ida, 2022 presidential candidate George Wajackoyah, and Kitui Senator Enock Wambua.
Analysts believe Mr. Musyoka, Ms. Karua, and Mr. Wamalwa hope to inherit Mr. Odinga’s base of support if he does not run for president for the sixth time in 2027.
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The three stand out in his anti-government demonstrations. Mr. Wandayi and Mr. Sifuna told the GossipA2Z that some members of the Azimio campaign team did not support Mr. Odinga’s quest for the presidency.
According to them, the legislators expected immediate rewards in the form of appointments. Several politicians, according to the two, have commercial interests in the government.
“Our commitment to an improved Kenya is what has held us together. It is a matter of shared values and ideology, said Mr. Wandayi, a member of parliament for Ugunja.
Mr. Sifuna asserts that politicians without morals are frequently persuaded to enter the government for personal advancement. According to him, it is difficult for individuals who constantly pursue commercial opportunities with the government to challenge the ruling class. Some, he claims, fled for safety “because they are involved in dubious transactions.”
The senator from Nairobi stated, “Those of us who are always at the forefront have nothing to gain from the regime, and therefore nothing to lose by standing up for our beliefs.”
“If you are motivated by principle and conviction, you remain regardless of the weather. If personal ambition and advancement are the driving force, you will be blown about by the wind.
Prof. David Monda, a political scientist, argues that the new protests may not have significant political repercussions because Mr. Odinga lacks credibility because he supported high taxes during Mr. Kenyatta’s presidency.
Timing of rallies He adds that Mr. Odinga faces legacy concerns and may support another candidate to maintain his relevance on the Kenyan political scene.
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“It is evident that he must lose to succeed. “He will have to sacrifice his ambitions and support another opposition candidate in 2027 – a kind of ‘Kibaki Tosha’ moment,” a professor from City University of New York said, referring to Mr. Odinga’s famous slogan in 2002 when the opposition united to defeat President Daniel arap Moi’s preferred successor Uhuru Kenyatta.
According to him, the decision by certain politicians to abandon Mr. Odinga is not unexpected. “Politicians are egocentric and self-centered.
The allies of Azimio who are taking a backseat are employing strategic ambiguity, regarding the protests with benign neglect while adopting a wait-and-see stance. They wish to observe the political climate, he stated.
Sabina Chege, former governor of Kisii, James Ongwae, the head of the Central Organisation of Trade Unions, Francis Atwoli, former governor of Makueni, Kivutha Kibwana, and former nominated MP Maina Kamanda are among those who have abandoned Mr. Odinga’s campaign.
Others include East African Legislative assembly member Kanini Kega, Elda’s assembly member Adan Keynan, former Karat secretary-general Nick Salat, Jubilee deputy secretary-general Joshua Kutuny, Senator Fatuma Dullo, and Nairobi assemblywoman Esther Passaris. Mr. Kutuny accuses Mr. Odinga of being dishonest with certain Azimio affiliate parties.
“The choice to support him continues to torment us. Jubilee was the most significant casualty. Mr. Odinga’s ODM and Mr. Musyoka’s Wiper maintained their voter bases, whereas Jubilee was defeated. We are no longer Kenya’s largest party,” he said.
ALSO READ: A Deeper Dive: Uhuru’s Involvement in Raila’s Saba Saba Protests
“We received a raw deal. If Raila were sincere, he would have reached out to both Jubilee factions and gotten to the root of the disagreements. Even if he were elected, Jubilee would be marginalized.”
Mr. Salat echoes these sentiments, adding that Mr. Odinga’s call for lower taxes is not sincere.
“Leaders should look beyond their interests and propose solutions for the betterment of the nation. Demonstrations on the street cannot reduce the cost of living taxation. They must cease lying. Under the prevailing conditions, no president can perform miracles, Mr. Salat said.
According to political analyst Macharia Munene, some of the politicians who abandoned Mr. Odinga may have contributed to his electoral defeat.
Prof. Munene asserts that the timing of the protests, if properly exploited, could have significant political repercussions, adding that the tough economic conditions and high taxes are likely to draw large crowds to the demonstrations.
“However, he must develop compelling narratives. The current effort may not have the same impact as the one in 1990, but there is potential for a large turnout at the protests, according to Prof. Munene.
Kanu chairman Gideon Moi, ODM Deputy Party Leader Ali Hassan Joho, former Kitui governor Charity Ngilu, former Jubilee Secretary-General Raphael Tuju, former Senate Majority Leader Samuel Poghisio and his then-National Assembly colleague Amos Kimunya, and former Agriculture Cabinet Secretary Peter Munya have been relegated to the background.
ALSO READ: Raila Odinga Threatens Independent Electoral Commission Amid Select Committee Disregard
ODM Chairman John Mbadi, National Assembly Minority Whip Junet Mohammed, and former Laikipia governor Ndiritu Muriithi have avoided the demonstrations for the most part. Mr. Mohamed was the face of last year’s Azimio advertising campaigns.
He was present at the majority of Mr. Odinga’s rallies. Mr. Odinga defended Mr. Mohamed after some opposition members accused him of campaign mismanagement.
Contacted, he informed the GossipA2Z that his support for Mr. Odinga in the National Assembly, where he serves as minority whip and ODM Director of Elections, remains unwavering.
He stated, “We are doing everything possible to advance the party’s and our leader’s agendas.” The Suna East representative defended politicians who maintain a low profile. “Those without political office may find it difficult to participate in political activities,” he stated.
Mr. Mbadi was also an integral part of Mr. Odinga’s campaigns. However, his involvement diminished when he was forced to withdraw from the campaign for governor of Homa Bay in favor of then-Woman Representative Gladys Wanga, who went on to win the position.
After failing to retain his position as Minority Leader of the National Assembly, Mr. Mbadi drifted away. He even stated that he was willing to resign as chairman of the ODM.
ALSO READ: Azimio Considers Raila’s Exit to Counter President Ruto
Mr. Mbadi told the Sunday Nation that he continues to participate in opposition activities, including serving on Mr. Odinga’s Economic Council. He blames “turf wars” for his absence from political meetings, particularly in Nairobi.
Mr. Mbadi also asserts that several of Mr. Odinga’s supporters were motivated by personal interests. “When you have strong chances of winning an election, you attract all types of individuals. “Raila will remain politically relevant,” said Mr. Mbadi.
Mr. Muriithi, who is also a member of Mr. Odinga’s Economic Council, asserts that he is primarily responsible for the planning of political activities.
“Every organization has a division of labor, but the media tend to focus on those who attend rallies and speak,” he said.
Gideon Ochanda (Bondo), Caroli Omondi (Suba South), Elisha Odhiambo (Gem), Mark Nyamita (Uriri), Paul Abuor (Rongo), Phelix Odiwuor alias Jalang’o (Lang’ata), and Tom Ojienda (Kisumu) continue to defy Mr. Odinga.
Mr. Odhiambo states that he has decided to collaborate with the President “for the development of my constituency.” He also intends to contact Dr. Ruto to initiate some projects in Gem. “The President’s goodwill is crucial for influencing development initiatives. Because our party leader chose to collaborate with President Uhuru Kenyatta, our region was able to complete several initiatives, he explained.
“How is recognizing our President treasonous? It is essential to offer development to the populace. The President will shortly be visiting my district. Having considered the country’s direction, I have decided to pursue reconciliation. Therefore, I will not participate in anti-government demonstrations.”
Raila’s Shifting Inner Circle in the Battle Against Ruto
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