What it Would Take to Remove Presidential Term Limits in Kenya
A lawmaker within Kenyan President William Ruto’s coalition sparked controversy by insinuating the existence of a strategy to eliminate presidential term restrictions in the nation.
Kenya’s constitution sets a two-term presidential limit.
The level of backing for the proposal among members of the president’s party, the United Democratic Alliance, remains uncertain. Salah Yakub, a member of parliament, indicated in early November 2022 that there had been secretive talks about it.
Yakub, a newly elected member of parliament, faced criticism from veteran lawmakers affiliated with the president’s party in response to his statement.
This suggests that Yakub isn’t closely associated with the president’s inner circle nor considered a key figure in the party’s policymaking. His proposal might be an ambitious attempt to enhance his position within the party.
The United Democratic Alliance disassociated itself from Yakub’s statement upon its initial report.
If this scenario were to materialize, it would imply that Ruto, aged 55, could run for three more terms. Conversely, Raila Odinga, his primary political rival from the Orange Democratic Movement party, would essentially be barred from pursuing the presidency again, given his age of 77.
Kenya implemented its term limit before the 1992 elections and upheld it in the 2010 Constitution. Despite neighboring regions being plagued by dysfunctional and undemocratic governments, Kenya continues to be hailed as a shining example of democracy.
Yakub believes that if a president is performing well, there should be no restriction on the number of terms they can serve.
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This mis-states the function of term limits.
They aren’t intended to dissuade inadequate performance. The Kenyan Constitution offers alternative methods for addressing presidents who commit serious misconduct, such as impeachment.
Term limits aim to reduce corruption and misconduct, introduce fresh perspectives and individuals into government, and foster innovation and creativity in addressing national issues.
Above all, term limits breathe new life into the nation’s democracy and mitigate the risk of monopoly. They safeguard the democratic process from morphing into an inadvertent dictatorship and hinder the incumbent from assuming a perpetual presidency.
Term limits hold particular significance in a nation like Kenya, where a majority of the population perceives that an existing government will show preferential treatment towards the ethnic group of the incumbent president.
Luckily for Kenya and its democratic system, it will prove challenging for any administration to abolish term restrictions.
The constitution outlines intricate processes for altering key provisions, such as the presidential term limit. A crucial step involves gaining approval from Kenyan citizens through a referendum. It’s improbable that voters would endorse any attempts to tamper with a constitutional system that is strong and efficiently operational.
What stands in the way of changing term limits
The Kenyan constitution outlines the procedure for modifying its clauses. Altering the duration of the president’s tenure necessitates:
- securing the votes of two-thirds of both houses of parliament – the senate and national assembly
- and the support of a simple majority of the citizens of Kenya voting in a referendum.
These clauses indicate that the creators of the 2010 constitution recognized the significance of maintaining constitutional stability and predictability. They also understood the importance of specific provisions in ensuring the smooth operation of the nation’s democratic institutions and the enforcement of the rule of law.
This elucidates the rationale behind the drafters implementing stricter procedures for modifying provisions aimed at bolstering democracy. These include safeguards for judicial autonomy and the preservation of fundamental liberties outlined in the Bill of Rights, in addition to the presidential term limit.
The provisions for making amendments to the constitution are structured to enable the full participation of Kenyan citizens in alterations that could significantly transform the framework of their democratic governance.
The 2010 Constitution aimed to introduce calmer avenues for resolving election-related disputes. The aftermath of the 2007 election, marred by violent clashes stemming from a dispute over presidential results, resulted in over 1,000 fatalities and the displacement of hundreds of thousands.
Following the electoral cycles of 2013, 2017, and 2022, Kenyans leveraged constitutional avenues to peacefully address associated conflicts. Consequently, there has been a gradual embrace and reverence for the principles of the rule of law among Kenyan citizens.
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It’s improbable that there would be enough support in Parliament to achieve a two-thirds majority for a constitutional amendment regarding the presidential term.
Initially, the governing party lacks a two-thirds majority in either chamber, necessitating the backing of the opposition. However, given that the proposed amendment could substantially extend the president’s tenure beyond two terms, it’s improbable that the opposition would consent to it.
Secondly, Kenyans are likely to perceive the amendment as an overt attempt to seize power and a threat to their constitutional stability. As a consequence, they may seek to retaliate against those backing the proposal in upcoming elections.
Thirdly, the intricate and protracted procedure required for amending the constitution could impede Ruto’s policy objectives and diminish his chances of being re-elected.
Low chances of success
Politicians have revisited the idea of amending presidential term limits on multiple occasions. It surfaced during the end of former president Mwai Kibaki’s tenure in 2012 and was implied during the unsuccessful attempt to amend the constitution in 2020. Additionally, some argued that former president Uhuru Kenyatta, at the age of 61, was too young to step down from office in 2022.
None of these endeavors progressed beyond the desires of politicians. Constitutional alterations driven by opportunism are improbable to thrive, given the close examination by the judiciary and the vigorous civil society in Kenya.
From my perspective, the leading faction within the governing alliance ought to have expressed a more forceful stance against the proposal to extend the president’s term limit. It should have denounced the endeavor as anti-democratic and aimed at undermining Kenya’s fairly resilient democratic structures and legal principles.
What it Would Take to Remove Presidential Term Limits in Kenya