Unraveling Niger’s Coup: Expert Reveals 3 Key Catalysts
The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) demanded Mohamed Bazoum’s “immediate release and reinstatement” at an emergency meeting held on 30 July in Abuja, Nigeria. He had been in military custody since July 19th.
The regional bloc issued a one-week ultimatum to the military in Niger and warned it would take all necessary measures, including force, to restore constitutional order.
General Abdourahamane Tchiani, the leader of Niger’s presidential guard, proclaimed himself head of state on July 28 after the military seized power.
Niger’s military leaders have provided no indications of a path forward, beyond warning against regional and international interventions.
This rebellion will have a substantial impact on the peace and stability of Niger and the entire Sahel region.
Although Niger has recently enjoyed its longest period of democratic governance since its independence, the threat of coups has remained constant.
48 hours before Bazoum’s inauguration as president in 2021, there was an attempt at a rebellion.
As presidential security fought off the coup plotters, it failed. As a political scientist with expertise in international security, conflict analysis, and governance in Africa, as well as knowledge of Niger, I then explained that the coup attempt indicated profound fissures in the country.
It implied that the military had not completely adopted democracy. The current coup plotters have blamed a lack of economic development and a rise in insecurity.
They stated that the intervention was necessary to prevent “the gradual and inevitable demise” of the country. I believe, however, that other factors contributed to the most recent coup d’état. These include ethnicity, the presence of foreign forces, and regional body frailty.
Contributing factors to the rebellion
There is no doubt that the increase in insecurity and deteriorating economic prospects contributed to the country’s fragility. Despite an increase in foreign forces, particularly from the United States and France, as well as military bases in Niger, the leadership has been unable to prevent insurgent attacks.
The country is home to numerous insurgent organizations, including Al-Qaeda and Islamic State affiliates, as well as Boko Haram. In the past decade, these assaults have caused thousands of deaths and displacements.
Hundreds of young people congregated in Niamey, the capital, to celebrate the July coup, waving Russian flags and chanting “Wagner.” This indicates that some Niger citizens believe the military, supported by Russia and the private military contractor Wagner group, would be more effective at combating insurgents.
In addition to insecurity and economic stagnation, three additional factors contribute to the recent coup d’état. First, the ethnicity and legitimacy of Bazoum was contentious issue during the previous election campaign.
Bazoum is a member of the Arab minority in Niger and has always been labeled as a foreigner.
Even though Bazoum received approximately 56% of the vote and is from the same party as former president Mahamadou Issoufou, this did not sit well within the military circle, which is primarily constituted of the larger ethnic groups.
Issoufou was able to conclude two terms as president because he was aware of the importance placed on the racial composition of the military. Appointments within the military are made based on ethnicity. The military has a negative opinion of the large number of foreign military bases and troops in the nation.
They believe that this diminishes them. In the struggle against regional insurgency, Niger is a crucial ally of Western nations. Massive French investments in Niger’s mining industry are another cause for its security concerns. Despite objections, the United States opened a drone base in Niger in 2019.
As I have previously mentioned, the drone base could render Niger a terrorist target and increase insecurity. France and its European allies withdrew their troops from neighboring Mali in 2022. Bazoum invited them quickly to Niger.
The military leadership of Niger and several influential figures in the country denounced the increase in foreign forces.
Thirdly, I believe the failure of regional organizations such as ECOWAS and the African Union to adopt a firm stance against military power grabs in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Guinea emboldened the Nigerian military.
Leaders of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) have now threatened to use force to restore Bazoum if the coup plotters do not reinstate him.
In the last four years, seven coups d’état have occurred in the region. Three achieved accomplishments. The leaders of ECOWAS and the African Union have threatened these three nations with sanctions, but little has been done to deter other opportunistic military leaders.
In a roundtable organized by the London-based think tank Chatham House on the impact of military intervention in West Africa, one of the regional leaders stated that they maintained channels of communication with the three military presidents out of courtesy. This creates the impression that military takeovers are not deterred.
Consequences for Niger and the area
The most recent coup d’etat has dire repercussions for Niger and the entire Sahel region. Niger is a strong ally of Western nations, particularly France, the United States, and the European Union, in the struggle against insurgency and the prevention of illegal migration to Europe.
The efforts to address these problems will be impacted. In addition, the new military commanders will use these issues as leverage in negotiations and to compel acceptance of the new regime.
The new leaders of Niger may join forces with the Wagner organization to combat the Islamist uprising. Already, the group’s leader has praised them for seizing power.
Russia and Wagner’s influence in the region could increase. Wagner was unable to halt the expansion of terrorists in Mali and Burkina Faso.
An effective military coup in Niger would be disastrous for democracy in the region and in Africa as a whole. The military administrations of Guinea, Mali, and Burkina Faso have already announced their intention to form a “military alliance” ostensibly to combat insecurity. African leaders must do more to demonstrate that they serve the populace.
Unraveling Niger’s Coup: Expert Reveals 3 Key Catalysts
