Roadmap Dilemma: Raila and Azimio at the Crossroads Between Finance Bill and 2027 Strategy
Tomorrow, the one-week deadline that opposition leader Raila Odinga issued to President William Ruto. On May 27 to reverse what he termed “tribal-state appointments.” Or the coalition party Azimio la Umoja-One Kenya will call for secession from the rest of Kenya expires.
And even before the President and his Kenya Kwanza Alliance administration comply with this specific demand. Several other deadlines are looming.
On the eve of Madaraka Day, which was celebrated last Thursday. The former prime minister issued the most recent letter, demanding that Dr. Ruto withdraw “the punitive Financial Bill.” By June 5 or face unspecified opposition action. A week ago, following a meeting of a parliamentary group. Azimio issued a similar statement containing a list of demands from their Kenya Kwanza counterparts. Including withdrawal from the Joint Bipartisan Talks. They issued an ultimatum to Kenya Kwanza to comply.
Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has also been asked to retract his remarks regarding government shareholding. If he does not. The opposition will ask its supporters to stop funneling taxes to the Ruto administration and may form a parallel government.
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While some of the conditions were quickly met. Such as the withdrawal of Eldas MP Adan Keynan. From the Joint Bipartisan Talks to prevent the collapse of the dialogue. And the threat to resume mass action, Azimio’s string of ultimatums appears to reveal the opposition’s apparent lack of options. Finance Bill will pass despite opposition, Kenya Kwanza lawmakers insist.
However, the Deputy Minority Leader of the Senate, Enoch Wambua, insists that Azimio’s demands are purposeful.
He explains, for instance, that they suspended street protests as a gesture of goodwill. In response to a request from the Ruto administration to give bipartisan talks a chance.
“However, I cannot guarantee that the suspension will last because it is contingent on the conduct of the Kenya Kwanza leadership,” he added.
Wambua describes the Financial Bill as “a decree of mass destruction for millions of Kenyans and businesses.” And notes that the Bill has taken on a life of its own. “If the Kenya Kwanza administration pushes this Bill through Parliament on the strength of its purchased tyranny of numbers, it could be the beginning of the end for this administration. Save my comment in a safe deposit box and thank me later.”
Regarding the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC). The senator in his second term and a member of the Joint Bipartisan Talks explains that Azimio is adamant. That the recruitment panel for IEBC commissioners cannot produce a truly neutral result.
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Members of Azimio participating in the negotiations have drafted an alternative approach and are awaiting the Kenya Kwanza negotiators’ proposals.
In either case, the ultimatum ping-pong presents the opposing side with a significant dilemma. Mark Bichachi, a political analyst, compares Azimio to a person with a hangover, still recovering from a state of intoxication and asking, “jana kulienda aje (what happened yesterday)?”
Political truth Bichachi attributes Azimio’s rage and apparent lack of focus to its inability to comprehend the current political reality.
Roadmap Dilemma: Raila and Azimio at the Crossroads Between Finance Bill and 2027 Strategy
He argues that the Azimio leadership and its supporters are still baffled by the fact that they lost the presidential election last year by a mere 200,000 votes, despite being in the best position to win.
Azimio boasted a galaxy of political heavyweights from across the country, including former Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka, Narc-Kenya and Kanu party leaders Martha Karua and Gideon Moi, former governors Kiraitu Murungi (Meru), Wycliffe Oparanya (Kakamega), and Hassan Joho (Mombasa), and former Cabinet Secretaries Peter Munya and Eugene Wamalwa.
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And now, Azimio’s situation is further complicated by disillusioned voters who rejected Odinga and his running mate Karua at the polls, but are warming up to the coalition: “Azimio is surprised that the electoral lover who dumped him is now regretting that the con artist has not delivered. And while Azimio continues to nurse the emotional pain of losing this lover, the lady is now attempting to be rescued from this abusive marriage, which unfortunately can only be dissolved after five years,” Bichachi allegorically describes the situation.
Indeed, this turn of events can be quite perplexing for Azimio. Bichachi opines that as the opposition embraces those who rejected it at the polls, it must regain its composure, let go of its anger over the last presidential election, and strategize for the 2027 elections.
His views align with those of Azimio members who believe that the opposition party should devote more time, resources, and energy to preparing for the upcoming elections instead of complaining about Ruto’s legitimacy as Kenya’s fifth president.
The leader of the Wiper Party, Musyoka, who has supported Odinga’s presidential campaign three times and twice as his running mate, is among the Azimio power brokers who subscribe to this school of thought.
In addition to criticizing the government and keeping President Ruto in check, which the Azimio brigade has performed admirably, the former vice president believes the opposition should concentrate on Ruto’s removal.
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Musyoka, while hosting political leaders from the wider Ukambani region and Azimio’s top leadership at his home in Yatta, Machakos County, last month, emphasized the need to “move with speed” to consolidate Azimio’s secretariat “and be able to see whether going forward, we will give Azimio top priority.”
Important for the former vice president are the reorganization of the coalition’s secretariat and the positioning of the group to unseat Ruto. “revamping of the secretariat” is synonymous with “early identification of Azimio’s flag bearer” in the Wiper Party. Nonetheless, this pinpointed focus is somewhat unsettling for some coalition members.
Political conflict
Although there are indications that he will not seek the presidency this time around, Odinga’s allies are not enthusiastic about this strategy.
They are concerned that such a discourse will expose the coalition to unwarranted political friction and jostling, leading to internal fractures.
Opiyo Wandayi, the minority leader of the National Assembly, told The Weekly Review that the current priority is to defend the interests of the average citizen against the excesses of Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza administration.
This, he notes, includes the current push to withdraw the Financial Bill.
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The bill, which has garnered considerable public attention, proposes, among other things, the introduction of a housing levy and increased taxation on a variety of services and products.
In addition, pundits believe that the opposition has failed to recruit other players who oppose Bill’s passage into law, such as former presidential candidate Reuben Kigame and several non-politician players.
Instead, Odinga and his associates have made the anti-government campaign a private affair, forming a single coalition party with Odinga, Karua, and Musyoka as senior partners.
Its apparent inability to garner political support across the nation, as well as the push for the reinstatement of commissioners of the electoral body, also known as the Cherera Four, are among the factors that characterize Azimio as an organization with “mixed objectives.” Former Nairobi Governor Evans Kidero, who has since defected from Azimio to Kenya Kwanza, describes the situation as “deep fishing,” implying that the Odinga-led group may have the wrong priorities.
Despite Azimio’s difficulties, the fact that they continue to exert pressure on the government is acceptable to many.
The presence of a strong voice that restrains government excesses is a welcome intervention in light of the high cost of living and increased taxation.
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For instance, vocal politician Kabando wa Kabando believes that what Raila is advocating is for the benefit of all Kenyans and “can put Kenya on a new political threshold.”
However, according to the former Mukurweini MP, the push by the Azimio brigade will only benefit Kenyans if Raila focuses on “the broader agenda for the welfare of deceived, disillusioned, and desperate hustlers” rather than his struggles.
The position of Kabando is influenced by the general tendency of politicians to obscure otherwise noble missions that benefit the masses with narrow and personal political agendas.
Curiously, President Ruto asserts that he is aware of the potential outcomes of Azimio’s anti-government protests. Ruto stated in Njabini, Nyandarua County, on May 13 during the burial of freedom fighter Dedan Kimathi’s widow, Mukami Kimathi, that he is all too familiar with Odinga’s political maneuvers.
The former premier concurred with the President, stating that he understood Ruto “more than any other politician in this country” due to their extensive political history together.
Therefore, he maintained that he knew precisely what he was doing. Ruto and Raila may have a clear understanding of how the current political impasse will resolve itself. Currently, however, Azimio’s endgame remains somewhat unclear.
Roadmap Dilemma: Raila and Azimio at the Crossroads Between Finance Bill and 2027 Strategy
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