Raila’s Power Play: The Enigmatic Kingmaker Behind Kenya’s Political Handshakes
The narrative remains consistent: a General Election is held, Raila loses, and the victor assumes office. Raila questions the legitimacy of the win, while the newly elected leader dismisses his claims, urging him to accept the outcome and move forward.
However, Raila neither accepts nor moves on. Instead, he rallies his supporters, leading to widespread protests, clashes with law enforcement, and national disruptions. Despite international pressure, Raila stands firm in his position.
The elected leader continues to criticize Raila, accusing him of using protests as leverage to enter the government. Raila denies these accusations, insisting he has no intention of joining the administration. The leader asserts he won’t yield to Raila’s demands…
But eventually, he does. A handshake is proposed, and once again, Raila demonstrates his ability to negotiate his way into the heart of the government.
This cycle repeats itself.
For decades, Raila Odinga has shown that he is the essential ally for any Kenyan president seeking to navigate political turbulence and complete their term peacefully.
Recently, President William Ruto received an enthusiastic welcome during his tour of Kisumu, Migori, Siaya, and Homa Bay counties in the Nyanza region.
ALSO READ: The Silent War: Ruto and Gachagua’s Nyanza Tour Unveils Hidden Tensions Amid Strategic Alliance with Odinga
Videos of jubilant crowds surprised many, as this region is notoriously difficult to win over, largely due to the influence of the “Raila Wall.”
One does not simply visit Nyanza without Raila’s blessing; when he approves, the reception is warm, and political prospects are enhanced.
As President Ruto’s convoy navigated through the throngs of people, eager residents struggled to catch a glimpse of him, reflecting a rare moment of unity and acceptance.
President Ruto and Deputy President Gachagua seemed visibly pleased, feeling validated after a period of political uncertainty fueled by Gen Z protests that threatened their positions.
DP Gachagua, amazed by the warm reception, remarked, “I did not know you are like this,” as the festive atmosphere enveloped them in Migori County.
A local MP reminded the crowd that Ruto was once Raila’s ally in ODM, questioning why they shouldn’t support him now.
An observer noted that it appears Raila may have traded his strong voting base for a deal that saw the state host an international symposium to launch his bid for the African Union top seat earlier this week.
Forging ahead with a fresh start…
President Ruto and Raila have long stood on opposite sides of Kenya’s political divide.
Twice, while Ruto served as Deputy President under Uhuru Kenyatta, Raila contested the election results, accusing the electoral process of being flawed. In 2022, Raila faced Ruto directly and again claimed electoral malpractice after his loss.
However, many recall how in November 2021, a planned tour of Nyanza by Deputy President Ruto was abruptly halted when residents in Kisumu’s Kondele area pelted stones at his convoy.
Until recently, a smooth visit to ‘Luo Nyanza’ by President Ruto seemed unimaginable, especially before he appointed four members of the Azimio Coalition to his cabinet in July.
But the situation shifted as President Ruto’s political fortunes appeared to falter.
President Ruto faced significant challenges, including widespread Gen-Z protests that forced him to withdraw the controversial 2024 Finance Act and reshuffle his entire cabinet.
It was a pivotal moment for his administration, one that altered the trajectory of his presidency.
The administration was weakened, and few came to its defense, as many chose to remain neutral.
Amidst this turmoil, Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua appeared dejected, having clashed with his subordinates while insisting he represented his people’s interests.
Gachagua, who had made it his mission to denigrate Mr. Odinga and vowed never to allow him into government, now found himself sidelined.
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Meanwhile, Raila, the seasoned negotiator, continued with his life, dismissing Gachagua’s criticism and asserting that he had no interest in joining the government until he did.
Yet, Raila downplays his role in Ruto’s administration, preferring to use ambiguous language to describe the “handshake.”
In his own words, “I am not in the government; we did not agree on a coalition government. There is no coalition! He wanted people to help him, and I told him to take his pick.”
Thus, with these few words, President Ruto has become the new favorite in Luo Nyanza, where he is now treated with respect and admiration.
Meanwhile, the disorganized Azimio coalition continues to waver on whether to drop ODM, with Narc Kenya’s Martha Karua recently revealing that the “handshake” negotiations began last year.
Raila likely negotiated aggressively for his share in the government, and once he was satisfied, he withdrew support from the Gen-Z protesters.
President Ruto has since introduced his “broad-based government,” which he describes as a “mongrel kind of government,” reminiscent of the arrangement between Raila and Uhuru during Jubilee’s second term.
Uhuru Kenyatta turns to Raila to stabilize the TNA government
Less than a year after the 2017 General Election, the once-strong UhuRuto alliance began to fracture. Efforts to reconcile the two leaders failed.
The newly formed Jubilee government struggled with internal discord, particularly from Ruto’s faction, which posed challenges in Parliament and the public.
Raila rallied his supporters to back Kenyatta’s administration, and suddenly, Kenyatta, who had been shunned by Luo Nyanza during the 2017 repeat election, became popular in the region as he and Raila toured together, launching and inspecting projects.
Raila became an integral part of President Uhuru’s government in his final term, with the “handshake” leading to the Building Bridges Initiative, a proposed constitutional change later invalidated by the Supreme Court.
The “handshake” between Raila and Uhuru was publicly recognized, leaving Ruto to chart his path to State House as he began campaigning early, much to the annoyance of both Uhuru and the opposition.
Raila was now in the government, while those in government found themselves in the opposition. Ruto’s faction launched a fierce campaign against President Uhuru and Raila, ultimately leading to their defeat in the August 2022 General Election.
The Kibaki-Raila truce and the “Nusu-Mkate” government
In 2002, when Raila declared his “Kibaki Tosha” slogan, it became the rallying cry for the opposition alongside the “yote yawezekana bila Moi” anthem.
This unity of purpose helped oust Moi from power, establishing Raila as a kingmaker in Kenyan politics.
However, soon after Kibaki took office, tensions arose within the ruling Narc party, a coalition of multiple independent parties, each with its expectations.
Kibaki’s inner circle attempted to consolidate power, leading to widespread corruption and discontent.
The first sign of trouble came during the 2005 constitutional referendum when Kibaki and Raila split into two factions.
Raila’s Orange faction opposed the government-backed referendum, while Kibaki’s Banana faction supported it but ultimately lost.
President Kibaki limped into the 2007 General Election, facing Raila and his Orange Democratic Party.
The campaigns were marked by ethnic tensions and animosity, which foreshadowed the Post-Election Violence that erupted after the Kivuitu-led electoral commission declared Kibaki the winner.
International mediation, led by former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, brought the warring parties to the negotiating table.
After intense negotiations, a government of National Unity, known as the “Nusu Mkate” arrangement, was established, with Kibaki as President and Raila as Prime Minister.
The two leaders publicly shook hands, symbolizing their commitment to national unity. Once again, Raila became part of a government he had initially opposed.
Raila dissolves the “Tinga Party” to join Moi’s Kanu, leading to Kanu’s downfall
In 1997, Raila was a formidable opponent of the Moi government. President Moi, who ruled Kenya from 1978 to 2002, maintained a tight grip on power, suppressing opposition and critics.
Many of his opponents were jailed, detained, exiled, or met untimely deaths under suspicious circumstances. Raila frequently clashed with the Moi administration, often facing imprisonment and harassment.
In 1997, after running unsuccessfully under his National Development Party (NDP), symbolized by a tractor, Raila devised a new strategy.
He unexpectedly aligned himself with Moi’s Kanu party, declaring a close working relationship between NDP and the ruling government.
At that time, Kanu was grappling with a legitimacy crisis, and Raila’s involvement helped stabilize the party in the public eye.
As the 2002 elections approached, it became clear that Moi would hand over power, and Kanu’s top leaders hoped to be his successor.
But Moi shocked everyone by choosing Uhuru Kenyatta, a political novice with little experience beyond his famous last name.
Raila, then serving as Kanu’s Secretary General, led a mass defection from Kanu, joined by veteran politicians like former Vice Presidents George Saitoti and Kalonzo Musyoka. This marked the beginning of Kanu’s decline as the ruling party.
With strong support from Nyanza, Raila has consistently used this loyal voting bloc as a powerful bargaining tool to secure his place in successive governments since 1997.
Nyanza has become a steadfast base that breathes new life into struggling administrations, offering stability and vitality to at least four different governments over the years.
Raila’s Power Play: The Enigmatic Kingmaker Behind Kenya’s Political Handshakes
