Many Kenyans Believe Raila Odinga Might Support President Ruto in 2027, New Poll Shows
A growing number of Kenyans think ODM party leader Raila Odinga could switch sides and back President William Ruto’s re-election bid in 2027.
This is based on the latest findings from the National Public Issues Survey conducted by Trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA). According to the report, 38% of Kenyans believe Raila may support Ruto for a second term. This opinion is closely tied to views on the ongoing bipartisan talks, widely known as the BBG (Bipartisan and Building Bridges Group).
The survey clearly shows that Kenyans who support the BBG process are more likely to expect Raila to team up with Ruto. In fact, twice as many BBG supporters (38%) think Raila will support Ruto compared to only 18% among BBG critics.
Still, not everyone agrees.
Nearly 46% of those surveyed believe Raila will stick to his usual role in the opposition, either by running for president himself or by backing a different candidate. Surprisingly, even among BBG supporters, 38% think Raila will eventually abandon the coalition and return to the opposition.
The report highlights just how uncertain Raila’s next move is, given his long history as Kenya’s top opposition figure.
This uncertainty is even stronger among BBG critics. More than half (53%) of those against the BBG believe Raila will return to the opposition, whether or not he runs for president.
“Slightly over half of BBG opponents expect Raila to rejoin the Opposition by 2027,” the TIFA report notes.
BBG Alliance Faces Low Public Support
The survey, which included 2,024 respondents from nine regions, also shows that the Broad-Based Government (BBG) — a loose coalition between President Ruto and Raila Odinga — has weak support.
Only 22% of Kenyans support the Ruto-Raila alliance, while 54% oppose it. Another 25% are undecided.
BBG support is mostly regional, with the highest backing found in Central Rift (37%), Northern Kenya (35%), and Nyanza (25%). In contrast, Mt. Kenya (72%) and Lower Eastern (70%) strongly reject the coalition. These are regions loyal to Rigathi Gachagua and Kalonzo Musyoka, respectively.
TIFA described the alliance as fragile, especially since even in Raila’s home base of Nyanza, support is lukewarm.
“Mount Kenya and Lower Eastern, which heavily supported Ruto and Kalonzo in 2022, are now critical of the BBG,” the report says.
Economic Frustration Fuels BBG Rejection
One major reason Kenyans are turning against the BBG is the struggling economy. Among BBG opponents, 85% say their financial situation has worsened since the 2022 elections. In comparison, only 52% of BBG supporters feel the same.
The survey also shows a clear link between economic hardship and political dissatisfaction. Just 4% of Kenyans who feel better off financially oppose the BBG — suggesting that most BBG critics are reacting to worsening economic conditions.
“Although there are many reasons for political views, economic decline is clearly a strong factor,” the report concludes.
Many Kenyans Believe Raila Odinga Might Support President Ruto in 2027, New Poll Shows
