Inside the Fall of Assad: What Sparked Syria’s Downfall?
Syrian rebels have overthrown President Bashar al-Assad following a rapid offensive that, in less than two weeks, saw major cities fall from government control, culminating in the capture of Damascus by the rebels on Sunday.
Aron Lund, a fellow at the Century International think tank, told AFP this week that the primary factor behind the rebels’ success was “regime weakness and reduced international support for Assad.”
He added that the efforts of Islamist rebel leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani to establish institutions and centralize much of the rebellion under his leadership were also key to the rebels’ triumph.
Syria’s long-running civil war began with the government’s crackdown on anti-regime protests in 2011. The front lines had remained largely stagnant for four years until the rebels launched their large-scale offensive.
AFP examines several factors contributing to Assad’s sudden downfall.
Army Weakening
Assad’s military has been reduced to a hollow shell after a conflict that has claimed over half a million lives and devastated Syria’s economy, infrastructure, and industry.
Early in the war, a mix of casualties, defections, and draft dodging led to the loss of approximately half of the army’s original 300,000 personnel.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that the military offered little significant resistance in some regions after the rebels launched their offensive on November 27.
The monitor also observed soldiers repeatedly abandoning their positions nationwide.
“Since 2011, Syria’s army has suffered attrition in manpower, equipment, and morale,” stated David Rigoulet-Roze of the French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs.
Underpaid soldiers reportedly resorted to looting to survive, and many young men avoided conscription, he told AFP.
On Wednesday, Assad ordered a 50 percent pay raise for career soldiers, but with Syria’s economy in shambles, the soldiers’ pay is almost worthless.
The army has not released any official comments since the fall of Damascus to the rebels.
Abandoned by Allies
Assad has relied heavily on the military, political, and diplomatic support of Russia and Iran.
With their assistance, he regained territory lost after the conflict broke out in 2011, and, following Russia’s 2015 airstrike intervention, the war shifted in Assad’s favor.
However, the rebel offensive last month coincided with Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine, and its air strikes failed to halt the Islamist-led rebels, who took control of major cities, including Aleppo, Hama, Homs, and finally Damascus.
Assad’s other main ally, Iran, has long provided military advisers and supported pro-regime forces on the ground.
But Iran and its allies have faced setbacks in conflicts with Israel since the Gaza war began, with hostilities extending to Hezbollah in neighboring Lebanon.
Nick Heras, an analyst at the New Lines Institute, told AFP before the rebels captured Damascus that “the survival of Assad’s government ultimately depends on whether Iran and Russia view Assad as beneficial to their regional strategies.”
“If either or both of those allies decide they no longer need Assad to further their goals, his time in power will be over,” he added.
Hezbollah’s Decline
Lebanese militant group Hezbollah has openly supported Damascus on the ground since 2013, sending thousands of fighters to assist Assad’s forces.
However, the rebels launched their offensive last month on the same day a ceasefire took effect between Israel and Hezbollah, following over a year of conflict in Lebanon.
Hezbollah moved many of its fighters from Syria to southern Lebanon to confront Israel, weakening its presence in Syria.
A Hezbollah source told AFP that hundreds of the group’s fighters were killed in clashes with Israel, although no specific figures were provided.
The conflict also decimated Hezbollah’s leadership, with long-time leader Hassan Nasrallah, his presumed successor, and several senior commanders killed in Israeli air strikes.
On Sunday, another source close to Hezbollah said the group was withdrawing its forces from the outskirts of Damascus and the Homs area near the border.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remarked that Assad’s downfall was “a direct result of the strikes we have delivered to Iran and Hezbollah, Assad’s primary backers.”
Inside the Fall of Assad: What Sparked Syria’s Downfall?
