Azimio’s Grim Fate: Just Like Cord and Nasa, Is Its End Near?
The National Super Alliance (Nasa) and Cord coalitions’ fate now seems to be looming over the Azimio La Umoja – One Kenya coalition, which stands on the brink of a tumultuous breakup two years after its inception.
Formed in anticipation of the August 2022 elections to challenge President William Ruto, the coalition is now on the verge of disintegration with its co-leaders expressing conflicting political views.
The recent discord among the coalition’s co-principals centers around a debate on whether to join President William Ruto’s proposed broad-based government.
Initially, ODM’s support for national dialogue and an inclusive government, which upset other Azimio members, has now escalated into a significant rift, threatening the coalition with a chaotic division.
While Raila Odinga’s ODM party has shown a willingness to go solo and join the anticipated government, other coalition members are against this move.
Kalonzo Musyoka’s Wiper, former Defence Cabinet Secretary Eugene Wamalwa’s DAP-Kenya, and Martha Karua’s Narc Kenya and Jubilee—key players in the 23-party coalition—have voiced strong opposition to the proposal.
The recent violent incidents on Wednesday, where leaders were assaulted by thugs, could be the tipping point.
According to Mr. Musyoka’s resolution, “We will not be part of the proposed broad-based or any other government with the Kenya Kwanza coalition.”
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The decision on whether to join the government or not is a major sticking point, with affiliates advocating for a national convention and comprehensive reforms in the government and justice for victims of anti-government protests.
The coalition’s impending split is so disorganized that a statement read by co-principal Kalonzo Musyoka on Wednesday was cut short due to disruptions at the Jaramogi Oginga Odinga Foundation (Joof) in Nairobi.
Notably, Mr. Odinga left the venue before Mr. Musyoka’s statement for another meeting, leaving Mr. Musyoka surrounded by Party of National Unity leader Peter Munya, former Meru governor, Kitui Senator Enoch Wambua, and a few other leaders.
Makueni Governor Mutula Kilonzo Junior remarked that the core issue is the coalition’s disagreement on whether dialogue should occur inside or outside the government.
“We have had disagreements before, but nothing to the extent seen on Wednesday. This is the worst form of intolerance,” Mr. Kilonzo Junior stated.
He further commented that the ongoing tensions suggest Azimio’s partners may be growing weary of Kalonzo and questioned the coalition’s future.
Makueni Senator Dan Maanzo expressed a desire for a national convention that allows broader participation, rather than an ad hoc arrangement.
“We don’t want Azimio to be destabilized by external forces. While it’s too early to declare Azimio’s end, we remain vigilant. The country needs unity, not a select group’s agenda,” Mr. Maanzo said.
Kileleshwa MCA Robert Alai, in a local TV interview, argued that Azimio has fulfilled its purpose and should be dissolved, as its main goal was to win the presidency, which did not materialize.
“ODM will not accept being told what to do. You can’t be in opposition while many of your members are in government,” Mr. Alai added, suggesting that if Azimio’s end is imminent, it should be accepted.
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Formed in March 2022 and registered a month later, the Azimio coalition includes 23 parties such as ODM, Jubilee Party, NARC-Kenya, DAP-Kenya, and Kanu, with the primary aim of challenging Dr. Ruto, who had diverged from former President Uhuru Kenyatta, now backing Mr. Odinga.
However, Dr. Ruto defeated Mr. Odinga by a narrow margin of 200,000 votes.
Cracks in the coalition began to appear in February last year when questions arose about Kanu party leader Gideon Moi’s participation, with his absence from coalition activities leading to Senator Maanzo declaring that only Wiper and ODM remained, as most Jubilee MPs had joined President Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza alliance.
Internal disputes have intensified, with Mr. Wamalwa openly opposing the national dialogue committee report, while Ms. Karua and Jubilee secretary-general Jeremiah Kioni often clashed and even considered forming a splinter group named Kamwene.
Political analysts suggest Azimio is following the path of its predecessors, such as Nasa and Cord.
Robert Omosundi, a political commentator, noted, “The more things change, the more they stay the same. This resembles Raila’s script after previous election losses.”
Cord, formed in 2012, included 12 parties with Mr. Odinga as leader, supported by Mr. Musyoka and National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula with Ford-Kenya, among others.
However, Musalia Mudavadi, initially interested, hesitated when he wasn’t guaranteed the flagbearer spot and eventually went solo in the elections.
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In response to losing Mudavadi, Mr. Odinga asserted that while some leaders might be swayed, the wider Kenyan populace remains discerning.
Cord did not last through the 2017 election and was dissolved after years of internal conflict, paving the way for Nasa.
Nasa included familiar figures, including Mudavadi, who had previously shelved his presidential ambitions for Mr. Odinga.
Nasa aimed to prevent Mr. Kenyatta and Dr. Ruto from securing a second term, but internal strife emerged after Mr. Odinga’s controversial swearing-in and the subsequent handshake with Mr. Kenyatta in March 2018.
The ODM party’s reluctance to share funds and Mr. Odinga’s failure to back one of the principals in the next election led to further tensions.
The dissolution of Nasa followed the resignation of key members, with Mr. Musyoka, Mr. Wetang’ula, and Mr. Mudavadi forming the One Kenya Alliance, which was considered a third force in the 2022 elections.
Ultimately, Mr. Wetang’ula and Mr. Mudavadi joined Kenya Kwanza, while Mr. Musyoka and Mr. Moi aligned with Azimio.
Azimio’s Grim Fate: Just Like Cord and Nasa, Is Its End Near?
