William Ruto and Kalonzo Musyoka: List of Potential Winners and Losers If Raila Wins AU Seat
Raila Odinga, the leader of the Opposition and the Orange Democratic Movement party, unexpectedly revealed his candidacy for the chairmanship of the African Union Commission, catching both his supporters and opponents off guard.
The ex-prime minister announced on Thursday, February 15, that he had engaged in thorough consultations before deciding to vie for the position of AU chairman.
The leader of the One Kenya Coalition Party, part of the Azimio la Umoja, promptly received approval from former Nigerian president Olusegun Obasanjo.
Raila’s candidacy received a boost when high-ranking officials from the Kenya Kwanza government also expressed their support for his campaign.
Nevertheless, the presence of the seasoned opposition leader as a candidate has prompted numerous individuals to ponder his prospects in the realm of Kenyan politics.
With President William Ruto fully supporting Raila, a political reorganization is anticipated to occur in the nation.
Given the most recent advancements, political experts contend that Raila’s victory will result in both gains and losses for various players within Kenya’s political landscape.
1. William Ruto
Numerous analysts contend that Ruto would emerge as the primary beneficiary if his main rival in the 2022 presidential election secures the continental position.
2. Kalonzo Musyoka
Kalonzo Musyoka, the leader of the Wiper Party, is being suggested as a potential recipient of advantages resulting from Raila’s recent political maneuver.
Having backed the ex-prime minister three times in the presidential race, there is widespread anticipation that Kalonzo will assume Raila’s political support.
“For sure, Kalonzo Musyoka is among people celebrating Raila Odinga’s move to seek the AU seat. Kalonzo is expected to inherit Raila’s supporters having sacrificed for him. It now places him an advantageous position ahead the 2027 presidential election given he is the senior most politician in the opposition coalition,” political analyst Gossipa2z.com.
Nevertheless, Ukambani political expert John Mueke contended that Kalonzo could find himself on the losing side in the event of Raila securing the AU position.
In an exclusive interview with Gossipa2z.com, Mueke contended that Raila could change his allegiance and back Ruto in 2027, attributing this potential shift to the president’s influence over his elections at the AU Commission.
Mueke suggested that the ex-vice president should reconsider his career path in light of the ongoing political alliance between Ruto and Raila.
“Baba has gone to Ruto because his age is catching up, and Ruto has something (s) to offer, like the AU position and other benefits. Convince me why Baba will support Kalonzo in 2027 against Ruto.? Kalonzo’s perennial mistakes call for his evaluation of his political career going forward,” Mueke said.
3. Wycliffe Oparanya and Hassan Joho
Wycliffe Oparanya, the ex-governor of Kakamega, and Hassan Joho, the former governor of Mombasa, are among those who could experience political advantages if Raila departs from the current local political landscape.
As the deputy party leaders of ODM, they are set to assume control of the country’s second most widely supported political party.
Mwiruru suggests that either Oparanya or Joho will assume leadership of the ODM party, gaining the ability to shape its political stance on national issues.
“Oparanya and Joho now have a better chance to advance their national outlook if they take over from Raila in the ODM party. We have seen John saying he wants to run for the presidency in the future, and this is a perfect opportunity for his ambition because no one could have dislodged Raila if he is still on the local scene,” Mwiruru argued.
4. ODM elected leaders in Nyanza
The former prime minister has long been acknowledged for playing a significant role in the election of numerous leaders, particularly in the Nyanza region.
The prevailing belief is that securing a nomination certificate from the ODM party ensures a certain victory in elections within the Nyanza region.
In previous instances, leaders who secured positions in Nyanza have faced allegations of leveraging Raila’s popularity to achieve victory in elections.
As per political analysts, Raila’s departure from the domestic political arena is expected to result in significant repercussions, particularly within the ODM party.
“There are leaders, especially in the Nyanza region, who have been riding on Raila’s name to win elections in every election cycle. If he wins the AU seat, many of them might not be re-elected in 2027. The fact that Raila will not be on the ballot in 2027 will make it hard to ride on his name,” Rodgers Muendo, a political commentator from Western Kenya, told Gossipa2z.com.
William Ruto and Kalonzo Musyoka: List of Potential Winners and Losers If Raila Wins AU Seat