US Documents Leaked: Uncovering the Whistleblower Behind the Ukraine War Revelations
What are we to make of the dozens of classified U.S. Department of Defense maps, charts, and photographs that are currently circulating on the Internet?
Complete with timelines and dozens of incomprehensible military acronyms, the “top secret” documents paint a detailed picture of the Ukraine war.
They describe the casualties on both sides, the military vulnerabilities of each, and, most importantly, their relative strengths when Ukraine launches its highly anticipated spring offensive.
How authentic are these unfolded and photographed printed pages, possibly on a dining room table? And what do they reveal that neither we nor the Kremlin already knew?
This is the largest leak of classified American information regarding the war in Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion 14 months ago. A few of the documents are up to six weeks old, but their implications are enormous.
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According to Pentagon officials, the documents are genuine.
Information on at least one of them appears to have been crudely altered in a later version, but in a trove of up to 100 documents, this appears to be a relatively minor issue.
GossipA-Z has reviewed over twenty of the documents. They detail the training and equipment being provided to Ukraine as it prepares a dozen new brigades for an offensive that could commence within weeks.
It specifies when the brigades will be ready and lists the tanks, armored vehicles, and artillery pieces that Ukraine’s Western allies are providing.
However, the report indicates that “equipment delivery times will affect training and readiness.”
As spring progresses, one map depicts a “mud-frozen ground timeline” assessing the ground conditions in eastern Ukraine.
After a winter that tested the limits of Ukraine’s air defenses, there is a sobering analysis of Kyiv’s diminishing air defense capability, as it seeks to balance its limited resources to protect civilians, critical infrastructure, and its frontline troops.
Not only do the leaked documents reveal a great deal about the state of the Ukrainian military, but they also reveal information about other Washington allies. The documents reveal internal debates regarding Ukraine and other sensitive issues in countries ranging from Israel to South Korea.
Some of the documents are marked top secret, while others are restricted to the United States’ closest intelligence partners.
What portion of this is new?
Many of these details are familiar. There is significantly more of it, and it is all in one location.
Consider casualty rates. It is not shocking to learn that the United States estimates that between 189,500 and 223,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or injured.
The equivalent figure for Ukraine’s losses – between 124,500 and 131,000 – is also consistent with estimates provided to journalists within the past few weeks.
In both instances, the Pentagon expresses “low confidence” in the numbers, citing information gaps, operational security issues, and deliberate attempts by both sides to mislead.
Intriguingly, this is the only location where attempts have been made to alter the documents to make it appear that Ukraine has suffered the greatest number of casualties.
A version that appeared on a pro-Russian Telegram site flipped the number of Ukrainians “killed in action” from “16k-17.5k” to “61k-71.5k” on the Ukrainian ledger.
This brings us to the question of who and why leaked the documents.
Here are some compromised documents.
Aric Toler of the open-source intelligence organization Bellingcat has previously described the transfer of documents from the messaging platform Discord to 4Chan and Telegram.
Toler asserts that it has not yet been possible to identify the source of the leaks, but traces their early March appearance to a messaging platform popular among gamers.
Following an argument about the war in Ukraine on a Discord server frequented by players of the video game Minecraft on March 4, one user wrote “Here, have some leaked documents” and then posted ten of them.
It is an uncommon but not unique type of leak.
Before the 2019 UK general election, documents about US-UK trade relations surfaced on Reddit, 4Chan, and other websites.
Reddit stated at the time that the unredacted documents originated in Russia.
In a separate incident from the same year, players of the online game War Thunder repeatedly posted sensitive military documents in an apparent attempt to win arguments.
The most recent leak is more damaging and sensitive.
Ukraine has protected its operational security diligently and cannot be pleased that such sensitive information has emerged at such a crucial time.
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The spring offensive in Ukraine could be a make-or-break moment for the Zelensky government to alter battlefield dynamics and set the stage for future peace talks.
Officials in Kyiv have discussed the possibility of a disinformation campaign by Russia.
Other military bloggers have suggested the exact opposite: that this is all part of a Western plot to deceive Russian commanders.
Importantly, there is no indication in the leaked documents as to the direction or thrust of the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
The Kremlin should have a good idea of the scope of Ukraine’s preparations (although Moscow’s intelligence failures have been pervasive throughout the war), but Kyiv must keep its enemy guessing about the course of the campaign to maximize its chances of victory.
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