The narrative remains consistent: a General Election is held, Raila loses, and the victor assumes office. Raila questions the legitimacy of the win, while the newly elected leader dismisses his claims, urging him to accept the outcome and move forward.

However, Raila neither accepts nor moves on. Instead, he rallies his supporters, leading to widespread protests, clashes with law enforcement, and national disruptions. Despite international pressure, Raila stands firm in his position.

The elected leader continues to criticize Raila, accusing him of using protests as leverage to enter the government. Raila denies these accusations, insisting he has no intention of joining the administration. The leader asserts he won’t yield to Raila’s demands…

But eventually, he does. A handshake is proposed, and once again, Raila demonstrates his ability to negotiate his way into the heart of the government.

This cycle repeats itself.

For decades, Raila Odinga has shown that he is the essential ally for any Kenyan president seeking to navigate political turbulence and complete their term peacefully.

Recently, President William Ruto received an enthusiastic welcome during his tour of Kisumu, Migori, Siaya, and Homa Bay counties in the Nyanza region.

ALSO READ: The Silent War: Ruto and Gachagua’s Nyanza Tour Unveils Hidden Tensions Amid Strategic Alliance with Odinga

Videos of jubilant crowds surprised many, as this region is notoriously difficult to win over, largely due to the influence of the “Raila Wall.”

One does not simply visit Nyanza without Raila’s blessing; when he approves, the reception is warm, and political prospects are enhanced.

As President Ruto’s convoy navigated through the throngs of people, eager residents struggled to catch a glimpse of him, reflecting a rare moment of unity and acceptance.

President Ruto and Deputy President Gachagua seemed visibly pleased, feeling validated after a period of political uncertainty fueled by Gen Z protests that threatened their positions.

DP Gachagua, amazed by the warm reception, remarked, “I did not know you are like this,” as the festive atmosphere enveloped them in Migori County.

A local MP reminded the crowd that Ruto was once Raila’s ally in ODM, questioning why they shouldn’t support him now.

An observer noted that it appears Raila may have traded his strong voting base for a deal that saw the state host an international symposium to launch his bid for the African Union top seat earlier this week.

Forging ahead with a fresh start…

President Ruto and Raila have long stood on opposite sides of Kenya’s political divide.

Twice, while Ruto served as Deputy President under Uhuru Kenyatta, Raila contested the election results, accusing the electoral process of being flawed. In 2022, Raila faced Ruto directly and again claimed electoral malpractice after his loss.

However, many recall how in November 2021, a planned tour of Nyanza by Deputy President Ruto was abruptly halted when residents in Kisumu’s Kondele area pelted stones at his convoy.

Until recently, a smooth visit to ‘Luo Nyanza’ by President Ruto seemed unimaginable, especially before he appointed four members of the Azimio Coalition to his cabinet in July.

But the situation shifted as President Ruto’s political fortunes appeared to falter.

President Ruto faced significant challenges, including widespread Gen-Z protests that forced him to withdraw the controversial 2024 Finance Act and reshuffle his entire cabinet.

It was a pivotal moment for his administration, one that altered the trajectory of his presidency.

The administration was weakened, and few came to its defense, as many chose to remain neutral.

Amidst this turmoil, Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua appeared dejected, having clashed with his subordinates while insisting he represented his people’s interests.

Gachagua, who had made it his mission to denigrate Mr. Odinga and vowed never to allow him into government, now found himself sidelined.

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Meanwhile, Raila, the seasoned negotiator, continued with his life, dismissing Gachagua’s criticism and asserting that he had no interest in joining the government until he did.

Yet, Raila downplays his role in Ruto’s administration, preferring to use ambiguous language to describe the “handshake.”

In his own words, “I am not in the government; we did not agree on a coalition government. There is no coalition! He wanted people to help him, and I told him to take his pick.”

Thus, with these few words, President Ruto has become the new favorite in Luo Nyanza, where he is now treated with respect and admiration.

Meanwhile, the disorganized Azimio coalition continues to waver on whether to drop ODM, with Narc Kenya’s Martha Karua recently revealing that the “handshake” negotiations began last year.

Raila likely negotiated aggressively for his share in the government, and once he was satisfied, he withdrew support from the Gen-Z protesters.

President Ruto has since introduced his “broad-based government,” which he describes as a “mongrel kind of government,” reminiscent of the arrangement between Raila and Uhuru during Jubilee’s second term.

Uhuru Kenyatta turns to Raila to stabilize the TNA government

Less than a year after the 2017 General Election, the once-strong UhuRuto alliance began to fracture. Efforts to reconcile the two leaders failed.

The newly formed Jubilee government struggled with internal discord, particularly from Ruto’s faction, which posed challenges in Parliament and the public.

Raila rallied his supporters to back Kenyatta’s administration, and suddenly, Kenyatta, who had been shunned by Luo Nyanza during the 2017 repeat election, became popular in the region as he and Raila toured together, launching and inspecting projects.

Raila became an integral part of President Uhuru’s government in his final term, with the “handshake” leading to the Building Bridges Initiative, a proposed constitutional change later invalidated by the Supreme Court.

The “handshake” between Raila and Uhuru was publicly recognized, leaving Ruto to chart his path to State House as he began campaigning early, much to the annoyance of both Uhuru and the opposition.

Raila was now in the government, while those in government found themselves in the opposition. Ruto’s faction launched a fierce campaign against President Uhuru and Raila, ultimately leading to their defeat in the August 2022 General Election.

The Kibaki-Raila truce and the “Nusu-Mkate” government

In 2002, when Raila declared his “Kibaki Tosha” slogan, it became the rallying cry for the opposition alongside the “yote yawezekana bila Moi” anthem.

This unity of purpose helped oust Moi from power, establishing Raila as a kingmaker in Kenyan politics.

However, soon after Kibaki took office, tensions arose within the ruling Narc party, a coalition of multiple independent parties, each with its expectations.

Kibaki’s inner circle attempted to consolidate power, leading to widespread corruption and discontent.

The first sign of trouble came during the 2005 constitutional referendum when Kibaki and Raila split into two factions.

Raila’s Orange faction opposed the government-backed referendum, while Kibaki’s Banana faction supported it but ultimately lost.

President Kibaki limped into the 2007 General Election, facing Raila and his Orange Democratic Party.

The campaigns were marked by ethnic tensions and animosity, which foreshadowed the Post-Election Violence that erupted after the Kivuitu-led electoral commission declared Kibaki the winner.

International mediation, led by former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, brought the warring parties to the negotiating table.

After intense negotiations, a government of National Unity, known as the “Nusu Mkate” arrangement, was established, with Kibaki as President and Raila as Prime Minister.

The two leaders publicly shook hands, symbolizing their commitment to national unity. Once again, Raila became part of a government he had initially opposed.

Raila dissolves the “Tinga Party” to join Moi’s Kanu, leading to Kanu’s downfall

In 1997, Raila was a formidable opponent of the Moi government. President Moi, who ruled Kenya from 1978 to 2002, maintained a tight grip on power, suppressing opposition and critics.

Many of his opponents were jailed, detained, exiled, or met untimely deaths under suspicious circumstances. Raila frequently clashed with the Moi administration, often facing imprisonment and harassment.

In 1997, after running unsuccessfully under his National Development Party (NDP), symbolized by a tractor, Raila devised a new strategy.

He unexpectedly aligned himself with Moi’s Kanu party, declaring a close working relationship between NDP and the ruling government.

At that time, Kanu was grappling with a legitimacy crisis, and Raila’s involvement helped stabilize the party in the public eye.

As the 2002 elections approached, it became clear that Moi would hand over power, and Kanu’s top leaders hoped to be his successor.

But Moi shocked everyone by choosing Uhuru Kenyatta, a political novice with little experience beyond his famous last name.

Raila, then serving as Kanu’s Secretary General, led a mass defection from Kanu, joined by veteran politicians like former Vice Presidents George Saitoti and Kalonzo Musyoka. This marked the beginning of Kanu’s decline as the ruling party.

With strong support from Nyanza, Raila has consistently used this loyal voting bloc as a powerful bargaining tool to secure his place in successive governments since 1997.

Nyanza has become a steadfast base that breathes new life into struggling administrations, offering stability and vitality to at least four different governments over the years.

Raila’s Power Play: The Enigmatic Kingmaker Behind Kenya’s Political Handshakes

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Kenyan Presidents have visited Washington over time, indicating a strengthening of ties between the US and Kenya.

 Notably, Jomo Kenyatta is the only President who did not undertake such a journey.

In the history books, it’s recorded that Presidents Daniel Arap Moi, Mwai Kibaki, and Uhuru Kenyatta all engaged with US Presidents at the White House during their terms, albeit under different circumstances.

Let’s delve into the specifics of two past State Visits by Kenyan presidents to the US:

Daniel arap Moi: February 19–22, 1980

During this trip, President Moi held a meeting with President Jimmy Carter lasting an hour and 15 minutes in the Cabinet Room of the White House on February 20, 1980. 

Later that evening, they reconvened for dinner. Noteworthy topics of discussion included the civil war in Uganda, the struggle for independence in Zimbabwe, and the Soviet Union’s invasion of Afghanistan, prompting the US to advocate for a boycott of the Moscow Olympic Games, which Kenya adhered to. 

Additionally, tensions existed between Iran and the US due to American diplomats being held hostage, with President Moi offering assistance in negotiation, although ultimately, Algeria mediated the crisis leading to the release of the hostages on January 20, 1981. 

Interestingly, today, similar efforts for isolation are directed toward Moscow.

While the United States continues to offer significant support in security and social services, the landscape has shifted, with attention now on tensions involving Ukraine and competition in Africa between the US and Russia.

Mwai Kibaki: October 5–7, 2003

President George W. Bush welcomed President Kibaki to the White House, primarily focusing on rallying allies against terrorism. 

This marked President Bush’s first hosting of a State Visit since assuming office in 2002, following the aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attacks orchestrated by Al-Qaeda, then under the leadership of Osama bin Laden.

 President Bush had initiated military actions in Afghanistan and Iraq, attributing the latter with inaccurate claims of possessing weapons of mass destruction. 

President Kibaki’s visit aimed at garnering support to address the economic challenges inherited from Moi’s regime. 

While acknowledging the global threat of terrorism, President Kibaki received an initial $100 million pledge from Washington to enhance Kenya’s security efforts.

 Subsequently, the IMF and the World Bank, which had suspended lending to Kenya due to corruption concerns in 2001, agreed to resume financial support. 

Notably, President Kibaki strategically minimized engagement with these lenders during his tenure.

Kenyan Presidential Visits to Washington: Moi and Kibaki, What Happened

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The High Court has scheduled June 6 as the date for the hearing of a request to exhume the remains of former President Mwai Kibaki. This application is made in the context of a legal case where an individual is asserting a stake in the substantial estate of a former politician, valued in the multibillions, through DNA analysis.

The decision comes in the aftermath of unsuccessful negotiations aimed at settling the issue through an out-of-court resolution.

Jacob Ochola and an individual known as JNL have taken legal action, asserting their right to a share of Kibaki’s assets by alleging that they are the offspring of the ex-president. They are now requesting the court to mandate DNA tests as evidence of their parentage to the former head of state.

They desire acknowledgment as his offspring and to be named as heirs to his estate.

Ocholla and JNL are requesting the court to mandate a DNA test to determine sibling or paternity.

In the initial prayer, they request the court to order a DNA test for both them and Kibaki’s four children, aiming to determine if the children are indeed the offspring of the deceased President.

The children are Judy, James Mark Kibaki, David Kagai Kibaki and Anthony Andrew Githinji Kibaki.

In the second prayer, they are requesting the court to mandate the exhumation of Kibaki’s remains to extract samples for conducting a DNA paternity test.

October of the previous year, the involved parties requested Justice Eric Ogola for a grace period to address the matter outside the courtroom.

In December, it seemed that no headway had been achieved in the discussions, prompting the parties to once again request additional time from the court to pursue a resolution outside of legal proceedings.

Ogola instructed them to update the court on any developments by February 29.

During Thursday’s court proceedings, Morara Omoke, the attorney representing Ocholla, informed the court that the negotiations had fallen through. He requested the court to schedule a hearing to address the issue of DNA testing.

Nevertheless, legal representatives on behalf of the Kibaki family requested additional time to submit additional affidavits regarding the matter before it can be brought to court.

However, the judge believed that the attorneys were using tactics to cause delays and ordered that the case proceed on June 6 without the possibility of postponement.

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“I have given you the blanket opportunity to file anything on earth. There will be no further adjournment on the hearing on the DNA applications,” Ogola said.

“All applications concerning DNA shall be filed and responded to, and parties are at liberty to file responses or supplementary affidavits. Hearing on June 6 with no option for adjournment.”

Attorney Daniel Musyoka, representing the Kibaki family, requested additional time to submit expert reports related to the case. However, the court insisted that all necessary preparations must be completed by June 6, the scheduled date for the hearing.

“This matter will be heard whether the issues are responded to or not. There will be no further adjournment,” Justice Ogola said during the virtual session on Thursday.

In this case, Ocholla asserts that he is Kibaki’s eldest son. Alongside JNL, they are requesting the exhumation of Kibaki’s body to facilitate DNA testing, contending that this is the sole method to verify his biological paternity.

Ocholla asserts that there are no available male siblings to help obtain the correct DNA for confirming his relationship as Kibaki’s son.

To support his case, the 63-year-old individual has included in his sworn statements a document authored by human pathologist Dr. Zakayo Limili. According to the report, the physical characteristics of Ocholla and Kibaki indicate a familial connection.

The pathologist mentioned that Kibaki and Ocholla share similarities in their noses, foreheads, eyelids, and lips.

Kibaki had listed his four children Judy Wanjiku, Jimmy Kibaki, David Kagai, and Anthony Githinji as heirs to his estate.

The kids have been against efforts to dig up Kibaki’s remains, arguing that conducting DNA tests on the body would infringe upon their privacy.

Judy, who signed the sworn statement for her siblings, emphasized that granting an order to unearth Kibaki’s remains should not be done without careful consideration, given that he received a state funeral before his burial.

She mentioned that the burial was a significant event on both national and international levels, funded by public resources.

Legal Battle Brews: Bid to Exhume Kibaki Hits Court as Family Talks Fail

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