Raila’s Ambitions, Ruto’s Agenda
President William Ruto and Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Coalition leader Raila Odinga, adversaries with a three-decade-long love-hate relationship, are once again engaged in a gladiatorial contest that could shape the country’s political landscape for decades.
The United Nations Human Rights Office has called for “prompt, thorough, independent, and transparent investigations into the deaths and injuries”. Wednesday’s death toll brings the total to 23.
“The UN Human Rights Office is extremely concerned about the widespread violence and allegations of excessive or disproportionate use of force, including the use of firearms, by Kenyan police during recent demonstrations. Jeremy Laurence, a spokesman for the office, said in a statement that “reports indicate that up to 23 people were killed and dozens injured during the demonstrations over the past week.”
But for political analysts, international observers, and the average Kenyan, the question on everyone’s mind is how the two leaders will navigate this latest political conflict and what their endgame is.
Analysts believe that the impasse can only be resolved politically and cannot be suppressed by force in light of the Kenya Kwanza Alliance administration’s strong stance and the opposition’s plans for three days-a-week protests.
Mr. Odinga’s ultimate aim is reportedly some form of “handshake” or “nusu mkate” government (the truce between then-President Uhuru Kenyatta and Mr. Odinga on March 9, 2018) or “grand coalition” (the grand coalition between then-President Mwai Kibaki and Mr. Odinga after the disputed 2007 election).
There are constitutional obstacles to attaining some of those proposed, but “cooperation” or “working together” without necessarily joining the government is viewed as a possibility, as was the case with President Kenyatta.
President Ruto and his deputy Rigathi Gachagua have repeatedly used the “handshake” narrative, which is unpopular in their strongholds, to attack Mr. Odinga and his Azimio cohort. The veteran opposition leader insists that this is not his objective.
Indeed, before the beginning of the year’s protests, Dr. Ruto, Mr. Gachagua, and other Kenya Kwanza leaders stated that they would not allow a “handshake” similar to the one Mr. Odinga had with Mr. Kenyatta in 2018.
How does Mr. Odinga persuade everyone that a “handshake” is not his ultimate objective, and how does the President advance his counterargument?
“Odinga does not participate in handshakes. Tom Nyamache, the president of Turkana University, informed GossipA2Z that he is approached for a handshake.
“In the current climate, sobriety must prevail, and the government must listen to genuine complaints about the high cost of living.” Prof. Nyamache advised the opposition to “cease criticizing the government without offering concrete solutions to Kenyans’ problems.”
According to governance expert Javas Bigambo, the outcome of the duel will have a significant impact on the careers of Dr. Ruto and Mr. Odinga. Mr. Bigambo stated, “Whatever decisions are made, the country must bear the consequences.”
According to Mr. Bigambo, Mr. Odinga has escalated his opposition to the President because he “does not want to be subdued after losing the last election.”
“The agitation is circumstantial, aided by the cost of living and the proposed tax regime, which he is using to his advantage,” he stated.
Religious leaders have called for a ceasefire, with the National Council of Churches of Kenya (NCCK), the Kenya Conference of Catholic Bishops (KCCB), and the Supreme Council of Kenya Muslims urging President Ruto to “reverse Kenya’s downward spiral into the abyss”.
In a statement signed by NCCK head Timothy Ndambuki, his KCCB colleague Martin Kivuva, and Supkem chairman Hassan ole Naado, religious leaders urged the government to open the door to dialogue and consultations as a means of addressing the country’s long-standing and deeply rooted grievances to promote healing and reconciliation.
The clergy advised Mr. Odinga to alter his approach to the collective action “that is pushing the country towards insurrection.” “We strongly implore you to adopt dialogue and consultations as a means of resolving grievances.
“The collection of signatures to overthrow the government is dangerous and should be discontinued,” the statement continued.
On account of Mr. Odinga’s “politics of grievance” regarding elections, he has been labeled a perpetual whiner.
After failing to overturn the results in the Supreme Court, the 2022 elections have remained unchanged.
The opposition leader’s initial demand in the calls for “maandamano” (protests) was that the servers used by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) be opened so that the results of the August 9, 2022 election can be audited and his allegedly stolen victory can be reclaimed.
A closely related demand has been for the recruitment of IEBC commissioners to be inclusive.
A 14-member committee co-chaired by MPs George Murugara (Tharaka, United Democratic Alliance – UDA) and Dr. Otiende Amollo (Rarieda, Orange Democratic Movement – ODM) was to lead the failed negotiations with IEBC as a top priority.
Dr. Amollo and Mr. Azimio terminated the talks, citing the Kenya Kwanza’s lack of benevolence, with the Dr. Ruto team last month demanding the resumption of IEBC commissioner recruitment if the opposition does not return to the negotiating table.
“President Ruto should also oversee the reestablishment of the IEBC until a suitable method is determined. Even though he has signed the Finance Bill of 2023 into law, President Ruto should initiate a process to repeal it and relieve Kenyans of their burdens. These are a few of the factors that are fueling the disturbances, according to a two-term pro-Odinga lawmaker from Western Kenya.
Mr. Odinga’s key strategy for the upcoming elections is to clean up the electoral commission and have a say in recruitment.
Political necessity dictates that Dr. Ruto must also have a role in the recruitment process, without giving any indication that he benefited from the previous commission and is eager to have a new compliant team.
The President must therefore be in the know while simultaneously acting as a dispassionate interloper.
Kenyans are dissatisfied with the Finance Act of 2023, particularly contentious issues such as the increase in the value-added tax on petroleum and the housing tax. Mr. Odinga and Azimio la Umoja One Kenya are employing the rising cost of living and new taxes as a weapon against the government.
The inclusion of the cost of living as a demand in the protests is intended to increase Mr. Odinga’s support base and persuade those who view him as a perpetual agitator that he is fighting for their rights.
The camp of Mr. Odinga now asserts that the Finance Act should be repealed. Success on this front can only enhance his image as an advocate for the common good. In the interim, the government of Kenya Kwanza remains on edge due to a court case that has opposed the implementation of the Finance Act.
Dr. Ruto’s political messaging of catering to “hustler” requirements has also been scrutinized in recent months. Mr. Odinga, who was labeled a member of the dominant “dynasty” in the most recent election, is increasingly adopting this philosophy.
Edwin Sifuna, the general secretary of the ODM, stated that Mr. Odinga’s case against Dr. Ruto is straightforward: Reduce the cost of living and the demonstrations will cease.
“The demonstrations are not a confrontation between Raila and Ruto. It is about the Kenyan people and Ruto. Mr. Sifuna stated that all the people want is for Ruto to listen to them and address the high expense of living.
“Raila asserts that he can afford unga and petroleum at any cost. Pain is felt by the populace, not by Raila. Once the people’s suffering is alleviated, the issue will be resolved.” According to analysts, Dr. Ruto must manage the narrative that he burdens ordinary Kenyans with taxes, which has garnered him disparaging nicknames.
His explanation has always been that the Kenyatta administration mismanaged the economy and that Kenya Kwanza needs the taxes to clear up the mess and stop borrowing more money.
In matters such as the housing tax, he has also used the Us-versus-Them card by repeatedly stating that he is targeting those with pay stubs and not Kenyans at the bottom of the heap.
As a result of the increase in fuel’s value-added tax, however, the prices of most products and transportation services have skyrocketed exponentially.
Even in Dr. Ruto’s strongholds, discontent is spreading, and he must reactivate the grassroots message that he has the best interests of Kenyans, especially “hustlers”, at heart.
The difficulty lies in his ability to do so convincingly while ordinary people continue to feel the squeeze. Concerning the cost of living, the religious leaders requested that President Ruto repeal the Finance Act, arguing that it overburdens Kenyans who are already overburdened by taxes.
“We appeal to your administration once more to repeal the Finance Act of 2023 to review the hefty burden it places on Kenyans. The NCCK, KCCB, and Supkem issued a joint statement on Friday stating that maintaining the current tax rates will allow citizens to recover their livelihoods and instill optimism.
Dr. Ruto’s efforts to obtain legitimacy and maintain an image of a powerful president are closely related to his efforts to maintain his hegemony.
Dr. Ruto desires to project an international image of a new generation of African leaders who address complex issues such as dollarization, climate change, and the global financial system with audacity.
However, the legitimacy of the President is being challenged by the signature collection and the increasingly disorderly protests.
How his administration responds to the disturbances is under scrutiny, with the police receiving the most severe criticism. He has been cultivating the image of a Pan-Africanist concerned with resolving continental issues and asserting Africa’s geopolitical standing.
This straddles the line between the country’s image and his personal stature. According to Prof. Masibo Lumala, a senior lecturer at Moi University in Eldoret, the threat of anarchy is genuine for Dr. Ruto.
“The opposition and government should be truthful with one another. Loss of life is tragic. Prof. Lumala stated that President Ruto should summon the opposition to the table and resume negotiations to end this insanity.
As a long-term solution, the government should also face reality and, for instance, seek ways to reduce the cost of living and provide solutions to unemployment, particularly among the youth. Instead of taxing Kenyans heavily, the government should broaden the tax bracket and increase the number of Kenyans who pay taxes.
However, with the world observing, what must President Ruto do?
The UN human rights body, among others, has issued forceful statements regarding the protests that threaten to tarnish the cultivated image.
How does Dr. Ruto project the image of the consummate African statesman presiding over a flourishing democracy while maintaining a hardline posture that includes allegations of excessive use of force?
Mr. Odinga and President Ruto wish to maintain their strongholds while simultaneously gaining sufficient political momentum to carry them to the elections of 2027.
Whether he is a kingmaker or a candidate, the veteran leader of the opposition will want to defend his strongholds from an aggressive opponent.
Dr. Ruto must also maintain the satisfaction of his constituency and assure them that he is working to fulfill his campaign promises without negatively impacting their finances.
According to Mr. Bigambo, the ultimate objective is to have a dual political architecture in which Mr. Odinga is elevated to peer respect through a politically viable compromise.
“This is the political sociology of Odinga. “However, President Ruto’s people are aware that if this occurs, Raila Odinga will claim his wisdom in restoring national order and implementing a working governance formula, and not all Kenya Kwanza policy frameworks in the Manifesto will be implemented,” Mr. Bigambo said.
“President Ruto must defeat Mr. Odinga and politically extinguish the fiercest competition, or he must condone him and risk annihilation in 2027 due to his antics. Either way, difficult decisions must be made.
Raila’s Ambitions, Ruto’s Agenda
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