Raila Odinga’s AU Quest: Strategic Exit or Political Trap?
Raila Odinga has consistently remained a mysterious figure in the realm of Kenyan politics. Assessing his effectiveness on the international stage remains a topic of debate, especially during his tenure representing the African Union.
However, on Thursday, he announced his intention to run for the position of Chairperson of the African Union Commission. Initially, one diplomat provided a harsh assessment of Raila’s candidacy but softened it with a conditional ‘if’.
“It is very important in that business that the candidate comes from the East African region. I just wonder what the appetite is for him. He will need 34 votes,” said the diplomat who is involved in some of the African Union programs.
The upcoming election, scheduled for early next year, is prompting the initiation of the process to replace the current officeholder, Moussa Faki Mahamat from Chad. Candidates are indicating their interest and submitting applications as the program gets underway.
In Kenya, some individuals perceived Raila’s candidacy as a strategic move by President William Ruto’s government. This move was seen as a way to offer a graceful exit for a politician who has consistently criticized the government’s initiatives and unsuccessfully contested the presidency five times.
If he emerges victorious in the upcoming year, he will enter the 2027 General Election in Kenya with two years already served in his current term, presenting a potential challenge. Drawing a parallel, former AU Chair Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma declined to pursue a second term in 2017, aspiring to secure the South African presidency, but unfortunately, she was unsuccessful in both endeavors.
If he faces defeat in a competition where political comebacks are rare, it could subject him to additional political embarrassment. There is optimism in Nairobi that he will emerge victorious, and authorities are assembling a dedicated team to promote Odinga. Additionally, he is expected to receive state resources for his campaign efforts, according to insiders.
Applicants must secure support from their governments, a step Raila has already taken, and subsequently engage in negotiations with neighboring nations or those affiliated with similar regional economic alliances like the EAC or the Intergovernmental Authority on Development.
The present Deputy Chair of the AU Commission, Dr. Monique Nsanzabaganwa, hails from Rwanda, situated within the Eastern African region. Raila faces an immediate challenge in garnering support from neighboring East African countries, where Nairobi has faced clear opposition (as seen in Sudan) or is entangled in trade disputes (as is the case with Uganda).
During a press conference on Thursday, Raila mentioned that his prior role as the African Union High Representative for Infrastructure Development provided him with a valuable perspective to “gain insights into every nation.”
Faki praised “Raila’s strong commitment to the ideals of Pan-Africanism and African integration” when he appointed him in 2019.
However, the controversial conclusion of that period occurred last year when Nairobi urged the AU to dismiss him. Kenyan diplomats exacerbated the situation by publicly sharing the termination letter on social media. Despite this, Raila played down the incident, asserting that he had resigned from the position several months prior.
Raila previously served at the African Union. In January 2011, he traveled to Abidjan in the capacity of an AU mediator to address the political turmoil arising from the post-election dispute between Laurent Gbagbo and Allasane Ouattara. However, Gbagbo’s camp accused him of partiality, leading to his resignation from the role, a move advocated by Washington, which even facilitated his travel by providing a hired jet.
Challenging the AUC position involves relying on Raila’s domestic and regional expertise. However, it also entails his reintegration into the dynamics frequently observed during AU elections. Former Nigerian president Olusegun Obasanjo, who currently serves as the AU High Representative for the Horn of Africa, expressed on Thursday that Raila will contribute to enhancing the effectiveness of the continental body.
“The AU, if it will serve the purpose that is meant to serve, requires the right person at the right time. We need a person who has experience, who understands the situation we are in, who comes from a background that can make a difference,” Obasanjo said.
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“I do not doubt in my mind that my friend could be the right candidate. That, of course, is subject to views, feelings, position, and presentation of our leaders in the East African sub-region.”
We are aware that Obasanjo has been actively communicating with key figures in the region to assess the viability of Raila’s candidacy. Additionally, he acknowledged playing a role in facilitating a political resolution between President William Ruto and Raila, who were intense rivals during the 2022 General Election.
After resolving internal competition, Raila must now focus on gaining international approval, as each member of the African Union holds an equal vote.
However, nations classified as “coup states” such as Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea, and Niger are currently under suspension. If they are not reinstated within this year, they will be ineligible to participate in the voting process.
As of now, it remains uncertain whether individuals from the surrounding area will pursue the position. However, speculations are suggesting that former Vice President Speciosa Kazibwe of Uganda, former President Jakaya Kikwete of Tanzania, and former President Uhuru Kenyatta of Kenya could be potential candidates.
“People who have held the position of head of government either at the prime minister level or at the presidential level will be able to knock at the door of incumbent prime ministers and Presidents without much ado. Such people will probably be the right person, along with other attributes,” Obasanjo argued.
“Such a candidate shouldn’t be a candidate for the country, should be the candidate of the region.”
The Chairperson of the African Union Commission holds the highest position within the continental bloc, akin to the Chief Executive Officer of the AU Secretariat. This individual is elected every four years, with the possibility of their mandate being renewed.
The person in possession of this role bears the primary responsibility for managing the administration and finances of the Commission. Additionally, their duties include advocating for and raising awareness about the goals of the AU, as well as improving its effectiveness. Crucially, they are required to engage in consultations and collaboration with essential stakeholders such as Member States, Development Partners, and regional economic blocs.
As per Rule 38 outlined in the AU Rules of Procedure, candidates are required to possess a commendable history of experience in government, parliamentary roles, international organizations, or other pertinent segments of society.
However, of greater significance are the fundamental principles for selecting key individuals. These principles encompass “fair representation across regions, gender equality, consistent rotation, the attraction and retention of top talent in Africa, accountable and effective leadership and management, and a transparent and merit-based selection process,” by the established tradition within the African Union.
This implies that nations will exchange their votes in exchange for reciprocal backing. In the previous election where a Kenyan vied for this position, Amina Mohamed, the former Foreign Affairs CS, faced a competition for voting support. Djibouti had put forth a candidate for deputy chairperson, and it was stipulated that chairpersons and deputies cannot be from the same region. Nevertheless, certain neighboring countries altered their preferences suddenly when adversaries presented tempting incentives.
Certain nations in the area might initially support a candidate in the first and second rounds of voting but may change their allegiance if that candidate fails to secure a two-thirds majority. Subsequently, Ms. Mohamed would level accusations of betrayal against neighboring countries.
Nominations for the position of Commission Chairperson and their deputy are typically distributed to Member States no later than three months before the election.
Up until now, it remains uncertain whether other individuals in the area will vie for the position. However, there have been speculations mentioning potential candidates such as Speciosa Kazibwe, former vice-president of Uganda, Jakaya Kikwete, former president of Tanzania, and Uhuru Kenyatta, former president of Kenya.
Raila Odinga’s AU Quest: Strategic Exit or Political Trap?