Raila Odinga’s 2027 Options After Shocking AUC Defeat
Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga faces limited options after losing his bid for the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship.
Political analysts say his influence in Kenya’s politics will be crucial in the 2027 elections, though his choices are few.
A seasoned campaigner with strong regional support, Raila remains a key figure in the country’s political future. He lost the AUC race to Djibouti’s Ali Youssouf in an election held on February 15 in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
Experts suggest Raila has three main options: run for president a sixth time, form a power-sharing deal with President William Ruto, or back another candidate.
If he aligns with Ruto, he could secure a senior government role while remaining politically active. Alternatively, he might retire from active politics and support an opposition candidate in the 2027 elections.
Regardless of his choice, Raila is expected to play a decisive role, either as a contender or kingmaker.
Former Cabinet Minister Franklin Bett believes Raila must tread carefully to ensure he remains relevant in shaping Kenya’s next government.
“He cannot afford to retire without being part of the next administration,” Bett stated.
For years, Raila has been the face of Kenya’s opposition, fighting for democracy, enduring political setbacks, and coming close to winning four presidential elections (2007, 2013, 2017, and 2022). Many viewed his AUC bid as an exit strategy from national politics.
With shifting alliances, public dissatisfaction, and his recent AUC loss, analysts are keenly watching his next move.
Other potential 2027 candidates include Ruto, former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, and activist-turned-senator Okiya Omtatah.
Matiang’i and Kalonzo’s allies are reportedly considering forming a broad opposition coalition to challenge Ruto, though Omtatah remains undecided.
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Those aligning with Kalonzo include former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, former Justice Minister Martha Karua, and DAP-K leader Eugene Wamalwa. Opposition leaders have been meeting to craft a unified strategy against Ruto.
Meanwhile, Ruto’s allies have floated the idea of creating a Prime Minister position for Raila, possibly to win his support in 2027. However, some ODM leaders insist Raila does not need an appointment from Ruto’s administration and should take time to reassess his future.
Political analyst Alexander Nyamboga believes Raila’s legacy would be better preserved by opposing Ruto rather than aligning with him.
“Ruto’s support for Raila in the AUC race does not mean Raila will back him in 2027. Many factors, including his long-held principles, will influence his decision,” Nyamboga said.
Nyamboga argues that Raila’s credibility would be stronger if he backed an opposition candidate like Kalonzo or Matiang’i, given their track records in public service.
Javan Amboko, a political analyst and lecturer, agrees that while Raila’s options are limited, he still has a chance to define his legacy.
“Odinga has spent decades fighting for democracy. Now, he can cement his legacy by supporting a clean, credible candidate in 2027,” Amboko said.
In 2021, Raila revealed that he initially planned to endorse Matiang’i for the presidency in 2022. Speaking at a fundraiser in Nyamira County, he said he was prepared to back Matiang’i but later decided to run after re-evaluating the political landscape.
Despite support from then-President Uhuru Kenyatta and Matiang’i, Raila lost to Ruto.
Matiang’i has yet to declare his 2027 presidential bid publicly, though he recently met with political leaders during a visit to Kenya from the U.S.
The Jubilee Party, previously led by Uhuru, has hinted that Matiang’i could be its presidential candidate in 2027.
Raila Odinga’s 2027 Options After Shocking AUC Defeat
