Party-Hopping in Kenya: Fueling Violence among Political Elites
Uhuru Kenyatta, the former president of Kenya, is struggling to maintain the unity of the party. That gave him a majority in parliament and a second term in office in 2017. This struggle is taking place less than seven months after Kenyatta left office.
The results of the election in 2022 were disastrous for his Jubilee Party.
It only managed to win the election of 25 out of 290 members of parliament. Two out of 47 senators, and one out of 47 county governors.
In a country like Kenya, where political elites frequently switch parties and coalitions, this shouldn’t come as much of a surprise.
Since the opposition successfully ousted the independence movement KANU in 2002. No political party or coalition has been able to rule for more than one term at a time.
What are the historical underpinnings of Kenya’s ever-changing political landscape?
In the early 1990s, the beginning of the era of multiple political parties. Uhered in a new phase of politically convoluted coalitions and alliances.
They were contending against the Kenya African National Union (KANU), the political party that had held the dominant position previously.
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KANU was an authoritarian party that ruled for over twenty years. Which is typical of the dominant parties that emerged in Africa after colonial rule.
During the administrations of Presidents Jomo Kenyatta (1963–1988). And Daniel Moi (1978–2002), the Kenya African National Union (KANU) coerced critics who didn’t toe the party line. And co-opted opposition figures into an elaborate system of patronage.
The coalitions that eventually formed were predominately elite-based. And relied heavily on racial and regional allegiances as their primary points of affiliation.
The first of these was known as the Forum for the Restoration of Democracy (FORD). In August of 1992, however, just after the organization had been in existence for a little over a year. It split into two major factions: FORD Kenya and FORD Asili. After that, there were further divisions.
The two most powerful coalitions in the elections held in August 2022 were the Kenya Kwanza Alliance, which was led by William Ruto, and the Azimio Alliance, which was led by Raila Odinga. Both of these coalitions are made up of many smaller parties.
They are the results of earlier attempts at coalition building that were unsuccessful.
After thirty years of cutthroat political competition, it was anticipated that political coalitions would gradually coalesce into cogent political parties with national reach and resonance.
In place of this, political coalitions in Kenya have not progressed beyond the confines of their respective bases.
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They continue to be, at their core, ethnic and regional machines, which are frequently cobbled together in the final days before elections to seize power.
I have spent the past three decades learning about Kenya’s political system. In my opinion, the dynamic nature of Kenyan coalitions, which sees them rise and fall with each election, does not provide the basis for stable and long-lasting party systems.
These coalitions put off the development of national parties, which, if they existed, would provide a degree of predictability and stability to the political competition.
The various parties should, to a large extent, reflect societal differences while also managing them. For instance, in Germany, political parties have collaborated to overcome certain historical differences by calling on shared interests as a unifying factor.
In contrast to the political coalitions that are cobbled together in Kenya in the run-up to elections, the majority of Germany’s coalition governments are founded on long-standing political parties.
And the political parties that make up these coalitions of the governing body do not negotiate them until after the election, not before.
Political mobilizations across Africa, where racial and regional differences are already significant, only serve to exacerbate existing societal divisions.
The fact that winning coalitions have control over all of the nation’s resources contributes to electoral violence.
Countries with winner-takes-all political systems, such as Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone, face a related problem: these nations have very small independent private sectors.
Therefore, those who come out on top are prone to the temptation of using their political power to seize control of the nation’s resources.
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What are some of the most significant limitations of shifting political coalitions?
They contribute to the instability that the country experiences. Unstable coalitions are a contributing factor to electoral violence, which occurs when losing coalitions take out their frustrations on each other.
Odinga’s coalition at the time, the National Super Alliance (NASA), threatened to agitate for the secession of his support base from Kenya following the violent aftermath of the Kenyan elections in 2017. These elections took place in 2017.
In 2002, there was a momentary uptick in hope for the formation of a long-lasting coalition.
The National Rainbow Alliance (NARC), which was led by Mwai Kibaki and comprised the most influential ethnic groups in Kenya, fought against Kenyatta, who had been chosen as Moi’s chosen successor.
However, in 2007 and 2008, civil war broke out as a result of Kibaki’s efforts to marginalize key allies, primarily along ethnic and regional lines.
The Government of National Unity, which was crafted by international actors in 2008, eventually evolved into a coalition that was uneasy and difficult to manage.
During the subsequent elections, its members defected to brand new coalitions.
Following each election, the conditions for anxiety and chaos have been repeatedly reproduced as a result of subsequent political alliances.
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Even though Kenya’s constitution of 2010 gave more power to the country’s 47 counties. The country’s political elites continue to be obsessed with winning presidential elections. To gain power at the center of the country.
Furthermore, the unstable coalitions are to blame for the pervasive corruption. Successful coalitions invest a significant amount of resources into consolidating their position of power. They have to pillage state resources to accomplish this goal.
What do these loose coalitions have going for them that makes them effective?
One method of organizing competitive politics is through the formation of coalitions. This method is particularly useful in societies in which ethnic groups and regions coincide.
It is possible for leaders who do not share policies or a vision to temporarily accommodate each other by joining together in loose coalitions. This helps to give the impression that the nation is united.
Because of this, it is essential to have fluid coalitions in such political landscapes. Until national cohesion and coherence are achieved.
Normalization of Kenya’s political system will take place as soon as the quest for presidential power is no longer seen as politically relevant and important.
It could take some time to transform coalitions into stable political parties. However, this is the only way to break the current political impasse that exists.
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What sorts of modifications are required?
The everyday concerns of Kenyans are, for the most part, similar. Political parties can emerge that have a national reach when the focus is placed on these interests rather than on ethnic and regional affiliations.
It is the elites of each region that highlight the cultural and ethnic differences that exist between the regions. They have a significant financial interest in maintaining the status quo rather than constructing institutionalized parties.
Kenya faces the challenge of figuring out how to turn its myriad ethnic groups and identities into a stable basis for a politics that is both predictable and well-organized.
Party-Hopping in Kenya: Fueling Violence among Political Elites
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