Mount Kenya Unease: Leaders Frown at Ruto-Raila AU Pact
There is a sense of discomfort looming over the Mt Kenya region due to rumors surrounding a possible undisclosed agreement between President Ruto and Opposition leader Raila Odinga regarding Raila’s bid for the AU position.
There are concerns that the alleged agreement, along with President William Ruto advocating for Raila to assume the top African Union position, could potentially be detrimental to the region and possibly shift the political landscape entirely.
It is noteworthy that Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, the unofficial leader of the region, has not publicly endorsed Raila, sparking further inquiries into his position as the second-in-command.
Gachagua has consistently expressed strong criticism towards the former Azimio leader and has not hesitated to openly voice his disapproval. He has consistently objected to any contemplation of a handshake.
Although the existence of a political pact between Ruto and Raila is uncertain, the rumored secretive arrangement has caused a stir in the region, leaving its leaders dealing with dissatisfaction and an air of uncertainty.
The complexity of the political scenario is heightened by the consequences and power struggles within the area. This has led Kiambu Senator Karungo Thangwa to inquire about the government’s endorsement of Raila’s AU candidacy instead of that of former President Uhuru Kenyatta.
“I have heard the country is supporting Raila Odinga and then I asked myself, [why do] you want us to choose this person (Raila) when our Uhuru is here?” Thangwa asked.
He embodies the discontent felt by leaders who argue that prioritizing their regional concerns is essential.
He echoes a feeling that is commonly held among leaders, suggesting that Gachagua should align himself with Uhuru, placing emphasis on regional unity rather than forming alliances with external entities.
According to political analysts, Raila’s departure from domestic politics to join the AU will significantly change the dynamics in Mt Kenya without the need for any agreement between Ruto and Raila.
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Mark Bichache contends that the area is characterized by a fear or aversion towards Raila, and with his absence, the dynamics are expected to shift as there is no central figure to be the focal point.
“The fact that Raila is moving is a game changer,” he told the Star. “And if there is a deal, then it’s for sure that recent forays by Ruto in Nyanza and investments in Western indicate a big change come 2027.”
Bichache suggested that there is a high probability, based on calculations, that Mt Kenya will secure a prominent position either in the premiership or as the prime cabinet secretary in 2027, despite the present circumstances.
Acknowledging that securing the AU position involves navigating political dynamics, Bichache remarked that Ruto’s objective is to gain control over Nyanza and other areas traditionally loyal to Raila.
“This will materialize if Raila succeeds in his bid and Ruto will do so by appointing more people from those regions to his government since he has indicated he is unhappy with some Cabinet Secretaries,” he said.
“He aims to ensure the completion of the tasks at hand and secure votes in Nyanza, breaking away from the tradition of relying solely on Mt Kenya for electoral support.”
With Raila off the board, Ruto’s run for a second term could be easier.
Ruto’s loyal supporters have justified their decision to back Raila, rejecting allegations of any covert agreement as untrue.
“We are pushing Raila as a united Kenya and not as Kenya Kwanza. Those other deals will come later if there is [a deal] but as of now, everybody is in total support of Raila,” Bomet Senator Hillary Sigei said.
“There is no division as to whether this is a candidate from Mt Kenya or Nyanza. This is a candidate from Kenya,” he added.
On Thangwa’s call for Uhuru to be supported for the job, the senator noted the former President has not offered himself for the post, “so how can you support someone who has not declared his candidature?”
The situation becomes more intricate due to the alliance formed between Uhuru and Raila in the recent presidential race.
There is speculation among some analysts that if Raila is appointed as the chairman of the AU Commission, it could potentially increase his political influence, thereby shaping the dynamics in the densely populated Mt Kenya region.
With Uhuru serving as Raila’s primary supporter, the area becomes the focal point of intense political discussions regarding the potential repercussions should Raila secure the AU position.
The delicate equilibrium of influence in the region teeters, with leaders pondering the repercussions of decisions crafted in private discussions.
“Should Raila win, then Gachagua’s prominence will diminish as Uhuru returns to the limelight as the region’s kingpin,” a vocal MP from the region said, declining to be named
Mount Kenya Unease: Leaders Frown at Ruto-Raila AU Pact
