Iran: What Happens in Transition?
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and several high-ranking officials perished on Sunday following the crash of their helicopter in a remote village in the eastern part of Iran.
Official records confirm that President Ebrahim Raisi was aboard the helicopter along with Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, Tabriz Friday Prayers Imam Ayatollah Al-e Hashem, East Azarbaijan Province Governor Malek Rahmati, and Raisi’s unnamed bodyguard.
The Supreme Leader of Iran, Seyyid Ali Khamenei, assured that there will not be a gap in leadership.
In the event of President Raisi’s demise, Mohammad Mokhber, the First Vice President, will serve as interim president for 50 days, followed by new presidential elections.
President Raisi’s passing may also influence the selection of Iran’s next Supreme Leader, a pivotal position within the country.
Speculations arise regarding potential successors to the aging Supreme Leader, with President Raisi previously considered a candidate alongside Mojtaba Khamenei, the Supreme Leader’s son. With Raisi’s demise, Mojtaba Khamenei emerges as a frontrunner for the role.
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The Assembly of Experts, consisting of 88 members, convenes to appoint the next Supreme Leader in case of abdication or death.
While Iran has not alleged any foul play, experts suggest that President Raisi’s death could have ramifications beyond Iran’s borders.
In Iran’s political structure, the President holds the second most influential position, with decisions subject to the endorsement of the Supreme Leader.
According to Idd Bedl Mohamed, a former Somali Ambassador turned political analyst, Iran’s security and foreign policies may persist following Raisi’s demise, potentially including support for proxy groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, while maintaining enmity towards Israel.
During Raisi’s tenure, Iran had taken steps to mend diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia and Sudan, impacting regional dynamics.
President Raisi’s demise occurs amidst delicate diplomatic negotiations between Iran and the US, facilitated by Oman, aimed at de-escalating conflicts such as the one in Gaza.
Iran: What Happens in Transition?