Clash of Priorities: Ruto’s Economic Focus vs. Demos for Third Liberation
On July 7, 1990, during the historic Saba Saba protests, Kenyans took to the streets to demand an end to one-party dictatorship and free elections under a multi-party system.
The earthquake represented the spirit of freedom, the power of the people, and Africa’s unfinished revolution. There have been three waves of Africa’s liberation.
From the late 1950s to the early 1990s, the “first liberation” was about political freedom, as Kwame Nkrumah proclaimed: “Seek first the political kingdom, and all other things will be added to you.”
Although the initial liberation liberated Africa from external colonial and racist regimes, it only resulted in “flag independence” with limited economic power.
After 1989, the ‘Second Liberation’ liberated Africa from post-colonial military and one-party dictatorships and reshaped the political future of the continent.
However, it failed to alleviate extreme poverty, necessitating the “Third Liberation.” Raila Odinga, the leader of the Azimio party, has called for nationwide anti-government protests on July 7, 2023, to launch the “Third Liberation.”
He stated that this is “the Saba saba of our lifetime.”
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But the million-dollar question remains: Can protests à la Saba Saba lead to economic growth? The third liberation entails breaking the bonds of poverty by expanding the economy and the labor force. It also involves dismantling political economies that are supported by crony capitalism, social inequality, corruption, rent-seeking, and elitism.
Certainly, President William Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza government has the authority to govern and is thus better positioned to lead Kenya in the trenches of the third liberation.
However, the government faces two formidable opponents. The first major adversary is a regime-change-obsessed opposition that is not a “loyal opposition.”
The opposition outnumbered and outgunned in Parliament, has resorted to street protests as a strategy to destabilize and replace the government before August 2027.
It recently lost the House battle to stop the Finance Act 2023 after a number of its MPs switched allegiance to the President.
Street strategy
Saba Saba is a crude instrument for liberating the economy, which should be driven by knowledge, strategy, and broad national consensus. It is like trying to crack a nut with a sledgehammer.
The street strategy is supported by two pillars. Its primary objective is to remove the Kenya Kwanza government from power.
In this regard, the opposition began the winter of discontent in January by alleging vote fraud and questioning the legitimacy of the President. Since then, the opposition has advocated for electoral justice.
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During the Saba Saba rally, efforts were made to collect signatures from Kenyans in opposition to the Kenya Kwanza administration. Its leaders have upped the ante by employing the same terms that were used to describe the dictatorial Moi regime during the second liberation, such as “dictatorship,” “illegitimate regime,” and “heartless tyrant.”
Raila proclaimed, “We are dealing with a dictator.” Under the second pillar of its campaign of civil disobedience, the opposition positions itself as the champion of the poor and middle classes.
The Saba Saba strategy of Azimio is to compel President Ruto to repeal the Finance Act of 2023 to eliminate punitive taxes on fuel and worker salaries and reduce the high cost of living.
The “3Fs” define its campaign: fuel, food, and fare. Following the increase in the value-added tax on petroleum products from 8% to 16%, fares for public transportation have increased by 30%.
Azimio has urged Kenyans to boycott President Ruto’s administration, its policies, and taxes, accusing it of imposing taxes without the consent of the governed and making the lives of ordinary Kenyans intolerable.
It has also contributed to perceptions of government corruption and ethnic exclusion. The second significant obstacle for Ruto is the economy, which has failed to empower the average Kenyan.
It is a titanic battle between Ruto and the economy. Kenya’s economy has been one of the fastest-growing in the world since 2002.
GDP growth
Ruto’s predecessors, Mwai Kibaki, and Uhuru Kenyatta, created large modern infrastructure projects, had strong GDP growth, and saw the middle and upper classes flourish.
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The GDP increased from $15 billion to $100 billion. But the bottom of the pyramid remained impoverished and even grew. The economic expansion did not result in the creation of jobs or the eradication of poverty but rather produced extremely asymmetrical outcomes.
The standard of living of Kenyans declined. The cost of living has continued to rise. The development has become a mere concept! Individuals are not “feeling” it.
The economy has not provided the four essential social components (education, healthcare, housing, and employment), nor has it provided social protection against extreme poverty.
Before the election in August 2022, Kenya was prepared for its third liberation. Ruto responded by focusing his campaign on economic issues, pivoting to the hustlers-versus-dynasties narrative that replaced ethnic politics with economic issues as the new axis of electoral politics.
In response, Azimio proclaimed the “third liberation” and called for an “Economic Revolution.” Raila advocated for a welfare state and promised unemployed youth either a job or a small stipend of Sh6,000.
As such, the election of 2022, the most peaceful, focused on the economy. The electorate voted for the Kenyan dream, which is a better future that enables the common man to prosper. Ruto was victorious fairly.
After the election, he must fulfill the pledge in Kenya Kwanza’s manifesto to liberate the bottom-rung hustler. The government must win the second round of the hustler-dynasty contest in the 2023 Saba Saba protest. Campaign season has ended.
Ruto must first reform the government before he can reform the economy. Values matter. The foundation of Singapore’s success is its commitment to meritocracy, pragmatism, and integrity in all aspects of public life.
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Economic recovery requires a solid policy foundation. The government of Kenya Kwanza lacks a white paper outlining how to attain economic prosperity and political stability.
Government efforts to establish Special Economic Zones to promote manufacturing, exports, and job creation must move from rhetoric to action.
Kenya must become a nation in which there are no longer any classes and nobody is left behind.
Saba Saba should be a time of profound contemplation on how Kenya’s political liberalization can bolster economic growth and eradicate poverty.
Clash of Priorities: Ruto’s Economic Focus vs. Demos for Third Liberation
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