Azimio Considers Raila’s Exit to Counter President Ruto
What if former Prime Minister Raila Odinga ceases to be the face of aggression against the administration of President William Ruto?
Will this disarm the Kenya Kwanza brigade or weaken the opposition-led crusade that relies heavily on Mr. Odinga’s national stature and political base?
These are some of the most pressing concerns and dilemmas within the ranks of the opposition. The Azimio la Umoja-One Kenya coalition is reportedly plotting a change in strategy in response to the trivialization and politicization of their “noble agenda” to save poor Kenyans suffocating under the weight of increased taxation and the high cost of living due to the Odinga factor.
The group led by Raila Odinga intends to shift its strategy from an anti-Ruto crusade to a massive national movement for change that seeks to include all players, including civil society, the clergy, and even Dr. Ruto’s supporters.
The Deputy Minority Leader of the Senate, Enoch Wambua, who is privy to the ongoing plot to revamp and refocus Azimio’s campaign, states that the new movement of change is a “partyless affair” and is for every Kenyan “who finds life unbearable”.
Propaganda
But National Assembly Minority Leader and Ugunja Member of Parliament Opiyo Wandayi told Nation he was unaware of such a plan. “There is nothing comparable. Yesterday, Mr. Wandayi stated that it could be propaganda spread by our opponents.
According to Azimio insiders, the group’s political architecture must be preserved. They argue that this is necessary for operating in a structured manner. “At the end of the day, Raila remains the team’s captain, and along with his two former teammates, Kalonzo Musyoka and Martha Karua, the squad is ready to go.
Nonetheless, there is a group of politicians who believe that the former premier has stood with ordinary Kenyans for far too long, a duty they view as unrewarding because not everyone voted for him in the presidential election, and who now want him to step back and allow the electorate to experience the consequences of their decision.
Beatrice Elachi (Dagoretti North), an Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) legislator, and Richard Onyonka, a senator from Kisii, hold the opinion that Mr. Odinga should give the Ruto administration a free hand to run “their government” as they see fit so that they can assume full responsibility for their actions and the resulting consequences.
The outspoken senator has even joked that they should allow the president to raise taxes to 100% if he so desires.
Mr. Onyonka’s argument implies that the legislators of Azimio increasingly view their boss as a hindrance that prevents them from attacking their political adversary, Dr. Ruto.
Tough circumstance
In a sense, they want to give the President enough rope to hang himself, but their team leader has an opposing view.
Ms. Elachi acknowledges Mr. Odinga’s commitment to standing with Kenyans but argues that this approach will only place him in a very difficult position.
She notes that Kenyans will accuse Mr. Odinga of attempting to obstruct the Kenya Kwanza government if the Ruto administration pushes forward with this high taxation regime and achieves financial stability after five years.
Many members of the Azimio fraternity share Ms. Elachi and Mr.
There is a growing sentiment among politicians that their leader is too proactive in his dealings and that they would prefer he take a more passive role, as former President and Jubilee party leader Uhuru Kenyatta did.
Some consider Kenyatta’s hands-off approach to be relatively safe and deceptive to political opponents. However, Mr. Odinga’s associates assert that this is not his style. They emphasize that their boss is a hands-on leader who leads from the front.
“He is not the type of coach who prepares his team and then watches the game from a distance. “Raila wants to remain on the sidelines to give his team instructions and encourage them,” observes a senior Orange party official who requested anonymity for fear of publicly contradicting his party leader.
Noting that Mr. Odinga is typically unafraid of controversy or adversity, the official explains the former prime minister’s “weakness” as an excessive attachment to his supporters, who have stood by him throughout his political career.
“Neither will he abandon them nor will he allow them to suffer at the hands of another leader.” He feels obligated to defend his people by taking action to rectify the current situation, even if that means striking a deal with the ruling elite.”
The Majority Leader of the National Assembly, Kimani Ichung’wah, is also cognizant of this internal dilemma. According to Mr. Ichung’wah, the former prime minister is an asset to Azimio because he is the only person capable of galvanizing the opposition, but he is also a liability because “age has undoubtedly caught up with him and his ability to make the right decisions at the right time has diminished.”
The Kikuyu representative seems to imply that the Kenya Kwanza alliance would prefer to deal with Mr. Odinga, 78, whom Dr. Ruto has recently described as a person he has known for a long time and whose political maneuvers he is all too familiar with, rather than any new or unknown leadership order in the opposing camp.
Mr. Ichung’wah asserts, “His belief that Uhuru can still take him and Azimio to the proverbial Canaan after failing to deliver the victory he had promised and assured him of is, to say the least, one of his major mistakes.”
The failure of the Kenyan opposition to seize power, according to Dr. Ekuru Aukot, leader of the Thirdway Alliance, is due to its inability to unite and its practice of politics based on deceit and entitlement. The lawyer-turned-politician opines that the political space outside of government is occupied by “big boys” who are afraid of newcomers and refuse to give them room to maneuver.
In the current context, the “big boys” are Mr. Odinga, former Vice President Musyoka, and Narc-Kenya party leader Karua, all of whom are members of Azimio.
Before joining forces with Dr. Ruto, Amani National Congress and Ford-Kenya party leaders Musalia Mudavadi and Moses Wetang’ula had been perennial presidential candidates and major opposition figures.
This group, according to Dr. Aukot, is impenetrable, and although he shares Mr. Odinga’s and his Azimio brigade’s concerns about the high tax rate and cost of living, it is difficult to join forces with them.
Also opposed to Dr. Ruto’s leadership is Mr. Reuben Kigame, a former presidential candidate who has launched parallel attacks against the Kenya Kwanza administration.
The fact that Mr. Odinga’s Azimio has failed to transform this available but dispersed support into a formidable, cross-political, nationwide force has prompted criticism of the former prime minister’s style and approach.
In actuality, his failure to capitalize on this opportunity has left him vulnerable to attacks from the rival Kenya Kwanza brigade, which views his initiative as a “one man” crusade.
Punguza Mizigo
Citing the Punguza Mizigo initiative – a Constitution of Kenya Amendment Bill, 2019 that sought to amend the Constitution of Kenya 2010 to reduce the burden and cost of governance borne by Kenyan taxpayers under Article 257 – Dr. Aukot asserts that the initiative championed by his political party was oddly opposed by opposition colleagues.
Experts attribute this to a fear of political marginalization or of rivals gaining political traction.
But for political titans like Mr. Odinga, who along with his allies commands a massive following – nearly half of the country’s registered voters – such concerns are unfounded.
Dr. Aukot believes that all those fighting against the government for a common goal should promote a good idea.
“The big boys, Raila, Kalonzo, and even Ruto, do not want free and independent thinkers in their immediate vicinity. Dr. Aukot explains that this explains Kenya’s greatest governance problem – that we have a compromised political class and a largely ignorant, subservient, and gullible electorate.
But Mr. Wambua dismisses allegations that Azimio is inflexible. He suggests that people can claim exclusion on any number of grounds. He encourages those interested in Azimio’s current effort to feel free to join them because “nobody can stop you.”
Mr. Wambua singles out former Murang’a Governor Mwangi wa Ida as the latest entrant in the ongoing campaign, stating that the politician is now receiving a great deal of public attention, just as the leader of Roots Party, Prof. George Wajackoya, who ran for president in the last elections, is doing after joining forces with Azimio.
Reportedly, Azimio agrees with the need to cast a wider net to attract more players and inject new ideas into the development of a new strategy, but the Odinga factor remains a significant obstacle.
However, players within the coalition are neither agreed upon nor do they know how to best remove the former prime minister from the front bench.
Friday tax boycott, civil disobedience, and nonviolence, says Raila. Mr. Odinga is the most experienced political figure in the Azimio grouping, with the largest political party and the largest following, further complicating the situation.
“It is a significant fix for others. A lawmaker from Mr. Odinga’s rural county of Siaya observes, “We need a new face for our campaign, but we can’t oust him from the center-right now because it could backfire.”
According to the Kitui senator and party treasurer, Azimio speaks today for a greater number of people who voted for Dr. Ruto than for Mr. Odinga in the presidential election.
Mr. Wambua attributes this to what he refers to as “a masterstroke hustler narrative strategy” that swept the ordinary struggling population, “but who have since been abandoned by their post-election hero.”
Mark Bichachi, a political analyst, contends that Mr. Odinga’s dependence on Azimio is the organization’s greatest obstacle. According to him, many people have lost interest in the former premier and his political strategy since the election fiasco of last year.
Create new alliances.
“For the current push to be effective, Azimio must form new alliances, embrace a youthful spirit and leadership, and broaden the movement beyond maandamano (mass action).
When planning acts of civil disobedience, they should reach out to businessmen and engage them in the issues at hand. Mr. Bichachi is also of the opinion that Azimio should demonstrate to Kenyans a level of leadership innovation sufficient to garner countrywide support and divert their attention away from the Ruto-Odinga ping-pong.
“Raila is a great leader, but he is the only focus of attention in Azimio. Mr. Bichachi concludes that this is because “he is too big for everyone within, but not big enough to oust Ruto from power.”
Azimio Considers Raila’s Exit to Counter President Ruto
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