Coup Leader Expected to Stay in Power in Guinea Presidential Vote
Guinea is preparing for a presidential election this Sunday, where coup leader Mamady Doumbouya is widely expected to secure a decisive victory. His popularity has been boosted by the recent launch of the country’s long-awaited Simandou iron ore mega-mine, combined with a fragmented and weakened opposition.
Four years ago, Doumbouya, then a special forces commander, overthrew President Alpha Condé in a military coup, one of several across West and Central Africa since 2020. Although he initially pledged not to run for office, a new constitution approved in September removed restrictions that would have barred him and extended the presidential term from five to seven years.
With Condé and prominent opposition leader Cellou Dalein Diallo living in exile, and other potential challengers disqualified over paperwork issues, Doumbouya faces just eight candidates, none of whom are seen as serious threats.
“Let’s not kid ourselves: there can be no other opponent who can challenge him,” said Guinean political analyst Bella Bah. “But that’s not the most important thing. (After the election) the president needs to take a step back and realise that he now has to exercise power,” she added, urging him to engage with actors beyond the military.
Political debate in Guinea has been limited under Doumbouya, with civil society groups accusing his government of banning protests, restricting press freedom, and curbing opposition activity.
ALSO READ:
- Donald Trump Accused of Rape in Newly Released Epstein Files; DOJ Calls Claims ‘Untrue and Sensationalist’
- Martha Karua Warns: Ruto’s Government on Borrowed Time After Raila Odinga’s Death
- Strange Deaths in Nairobi’s Kilimani in 2025 Where Victims Fell Off High-Rise Buildings
- Tragic Night on Kenyan Roads: Former Chief Justice’s Campaign Team Involved in Accident
- Coup Leader Expected to Stay in Power in Guinea Presidential Vote
A key factor in Doumbouya’s rising popularity is the Simandou iron ore project, home to the world’s richest untapped deposits. Initially scheduled for production in 1997, the mine faced repeated delays before Doumbouya’s government paused development in 2022 to review national interests. Now operational, the 75% Chinese-owned project is expected to produce up to 120 million metric tons annually.
“Dear Guineans, Guinea is no longer for sale,” declared government spokesperson Ousmane Gaoual Diallo at a recent campaign event. “Guinea is no longer up for grabs, Guinea is standing tall.”
Doumbouya’s administration has also taken steps toward resource nationalism, including revoking the license of a refinery company and transferring its assets to a state-owned firm, a strategy mirrored in other military-led governments in the region.
Despite the peaceful campaign, experts warn that the election is far from a level playing field. “This is obviously a context that doesn’t allow for any hope of a free and fair presidential election,” said Gilles Yabi of the West African think tank WATHI.
About 6.7 million Guineans are registered to vote, with provisional results expected within 48 hours of polls closing. ECOWAS observers will monitor the vote, signaling cautious regional engagement even though Guinea remains suspended from the bloc since the 2021 coup.
Coup Leader Expected to Stay in Power in Guinea Presidential Vote
