Why Raila is Likely to Lose AUC Elections – Diplomatic Affairs Analyst Hashi
Diplomatic Affairs expert Ahmed Hashi has suggested that opposition leader Raila Odinga may lose the African Union Commission (AUC) chairperson position to Djibouti’s nominee, Mahmoud Youssouf.
In a Daybreak interview, Hashi discussed Raila’s prospects of winning the seat following his endorsement by East African Community (EAC) member states.
Hashi, a former spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, speculated that France might interfere in the election, rallying Francophone countries to unite and block Kenya’s candidate.
He emphasized that Djibouti’s candidate is the frontrunner and likely to secure a decisive victory in the February 2025 elections in Addis Ababa.
Hashi highlighted the significance of understanding the African continent’s dynamics and how states are expected to react to Kenya’s candidate. He expressed doubt about Raila’s chances, predicting a substantial loss to Djibouti’s contender.
He cited the 2017 AUC elections when Kenya’s candidate, former Foreign Affairs CS Amina Mohamed, was defeated by Chad’s Moussa Faki after seven voting rounds.
Reports from the 2017 elections indicated that last-minute changes by Uganda, Djibouti, and Burundi contributed to Kenya’s loss.
Hashi noted that leaders in these nations are heavily influenced by their former colonial powers. He emphasized that the AU is divided along these lines, with France playing a significant role.
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Reflecting on his time as a spokesperson at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Hashi mentioned that they anticipated winning in 2017, but heavy French intervention led to their defeat. He believes a similar scenario will occur in the upcoming elections, with France and key Central African states opposing Raila’s candidacy.
The analyst also questioned Raila’s decision to pursue the position as he approaches his 80s, suggesting that the continent requires a more energetic and dynamic leader to advance Africa’s agenda.
Hashi argued that Raila’s candidacy might not serve the continent’s best interests, considering that 80% of Africa’s population is under 25. He questioned whether an older leader would have the energy and drive to address the youth’s pressing issues.
Raila will face competition for the AUC seat from Djibouti’s Youssouf, Mauritius’ Anil Gayan, and Madagascar’s Richard Randriamandrato. The winner needs to secure 66% of the votes, equivalent to 32 countries.
President William Ruto endorsed Raila, expressing confidence in his ability to lead Africa towards prosperity.
Ruto praised Raila as a visionary Pan-Africanist, a bold leader, a skilled technocrat, and a seasoned statesman capable of driving positive change across the continent.
Why Raila is Likely to Lose AUC Elections – Diplomatic Affairs Analyst Hashi
