Beyond Ruto-Raila Truce: Rigathi Gachagua’s Next Move
Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua is facing a delicate situation due to the recent friendly relations between President William Ruto and Azimio leader Raila Odinga.
The rekindled connections between the two key political figures, seen by some analysts as a precursor to a forthcoming reconciliation, come in the wake of Mr. Odinga’s candidacy for the role of chairperson of the African Union Commission (AUC).
Nevertheless, Mr. Gachagua, the second-in-command in the country, finds himself entangled in a political dilemma due to his firm opposition to any potential collaboration between the Kenya Kwanza administration and Mr. Odinga. This situation has left him with few alternatives.
The Deputy President faces several options: he can align with the President in supporting Mr. Odinga’s continental aspirations while explaining to his followers that it’s a tactic to sideline Mr. Odinga in local politics, abstain from the discussion entirely, confront the government’s stance head-on and openly oppose it, or take the drastic step of resigning.
The scenario also brings attention to the leaders of Kenya Kwanza Mt Kenya, who appear to be expressing divergent views. Despite his reputation for straightforward communication, the Deputy President (DP) has not made any remarks regarding the recent gathering involving Dr. Ruto, Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni, and Mr. Odinga.
In light of his earlier cautions, the Deputy President suggested that he had organized individuals to monitor activities at the State House. This was to prevent Mr. Odinga from entering into any undisclosed agreements with his superior, referencing the latter’s interactions with the three former presidents.
“There are some of our youthful politicians who are being used to divide us. The moment we agree to be divided, that will be the end of us,” the DP said at Embu Kenya Agricultural, Livestock, and Research Organisation.
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“Because of our unity, we have Cabinet secretaries and other senior officials in the government. We are also receiving tangible development and I shall not allow even a single person to divide us.”
The outspoken political figure has attended various occasions, such as the unveiling of the tea sector report for 2023 following the Uganda conference. However, unusually, the individual chose to stay silent during the events.
He asked how the region would agitate for the promotion of tea, coffee, and miraa farming if residents did not work together. “If we give in to divisions being created, no development will take place and we shall be doomed.”
Kimani Ichug’wah, the Majority Leader in the National Assembly and a supporter of Ruto, asserted that Raila Odinga is a Kenyan candidate, emphasizing that his candidacy is not linked to any plans of joining the government.
“Raila is a Kenyan. Just like we unite to cheer and support our athletes, Raila is competing against others on the continent to clinch the AUC chairperson seat and it’s Kenya’s chance,” explained Ichung’wah.
“Local political differences aside, he is not joining the government. We are simply supporting our own. We did the same for former Cabinet Secretary (CS) Amina Mohammed.”
Gatundu South MP Gabriel Kagombe also revealed that as Kenya Kwanza leaders from central Kenya, they have met and endorsed Mr Odinga’s AUC bid. “We are all aware that the President has endorsed Raila’s candidature.
This is the position of the government. Our internal differences aside, local politics will not be played on the continental stage,” he stated.
“We have no problem with Mr Odinga flying our flag at the AUC and the DP is aligned. There is no belonging to different sides.”
‘Shortchanged’
However, Githunguri MP Gathoni Wamuchomba differed. “Mt Kenya leaders campaigned for Ruto. We did not vote to accommodate Raila in government and give him a continental job. Githunguri people feel shortchanged. Why not support one of their own, if it is a Kenyan’s chance?” she said.
Mr. Gachagua has consistently mocked the former prime minister, even going so far as to criticize the seating arrangements at state events. Despite not being entitled to head-of-state status, the former premier is given that recognition.
He referenced the Africa Climate Summit gathering that took place in Nairobi the previous year. At present, political analysts suggest that it might be challenging for the Deputy President to openly align himself with the President in supporting Mr. Odinga’s cause, as doing so could potentially disturb his political stronghold.
Yesterday, Mr. Gachagua made a statement, avoiding the discussion of the Odinga matter, stating that he is determined to prevent any division within the Mt Kenya region. Analysts suggest that if he decides to support the ODM leader’s candidacy, he might present it as a carefully planned strategy to eliminate a disruptive figure known as ‘Mtu ya Kitendawili’ from the local political scene, rather than portraying it as a simple ‘handshake’.
If he chooses to resist the government’s backing of Mr. Odinga, he will be following the Ruto strategy employed against former President Uhuru Kenyatta.
Dr. Ruto, the former Deputy President, vehemently resisted the handshake that took place on March 9, 2018, between the ex-president and Mr. Odinga. In contrast to Dr. Ruto, Mr. Gachagua appears to lack the political resilience needed to confront a government in its initial term.
ODM national treasurer Timothy Bosire says, “Given the view he (Mr Gachagua) has on Raila and the opposition leadership, going forward will be quite a challenge for him, especially on how he will fit in the unfolding circumstances.
“He is likely to adjust from his previous position, but it might not be easy because he took extreme positions and this might cost him politically.
“His conduct and behavior did not measure the expectations of Kenyans.
He balkanized the country with his famous “shares” phrase, thus his conduct has not endeared him to Kenyans. He has no options because he is not principled to resign. This would be uncharted territory for him.”
The Deputy President has been the most outspoken opponent of Mr. Odinga and the Azimio la Umoja One Kenya coalition since the Kenya Kwanza party secured victory in the 2022 elections.
Other than calling for the political decimation of Mr Odinga, especially during the protests held last year, he has declared it his sole duty to “protect” Dr Ruto from being “confused or misled” by the opposition chief into a ‘handshake.’
The handshake denotes the political agreement forged between Mr. Kenyatta and Mr. Odinga on March 9, 2018, which brought an end to weeks of tumultuous protests that ensued after the contentious 2017 presidential elections.
State House ‘spies’
Mr. Gachagua humorously claimed that he would personally keep watch at State House and deploy informants to update him on any absence.
“Hiyo ikulu nimeweka mtego kila kona, kila pahali na niko na watu wakunipigia simu. Akionekana tu karibu, naambiwa kwa sababu huwezi mkubalia mtu ameharibu serikali nne akuje ya tano, si ataharibu? (I have mounted traps at every corner and everywhere in the State House and I have people there to call me if he is seen around because we cannot allow someone who has unsettled five governments to join the fifth; will he not disrupt it?),” he said in the past.
The DP has been leading a pack of Mt Kenya leaders to portray Mr. Odinga as being responsible for the ills of the Kenyatta administration because of the ‘handshake’. The region, as “shareholders,” had also been promised goodies that those who voted against Kenya Kwanza would only dream of, he said.
Restive backyard
Mr. Gachagua found himself compelled to organize a presidential tour to reassure the unsettled region that there would be no agreement or understanding, commonly referred to as a ‘handshake.’ This decision came in the aftermath of a meeting between Dr. Ruto and Mr. Odinga, overseen by former Nigerian president Olusegun Obasanjo, which brought an end to weeks of protests against the government.
Following the meeting, the two leaders decided to establish the National Dialogue Committee (Nadco), a report from which the Deputy Prime Minister has rejected, considering it futile.
Currently, it appears that a ‘truce’ has been established between the Head of State and Mr. Odinga, with the AUC leadership playing a central role, bringing the situation full circle.
The Deputy Prime Minister is now faced with the challenging responsibility of comforting his supporters, assuring them that there was no agreement between his leader and the leader of the opposition, despite the uncomfortable circumstances.
Macharia Munene, a professor specializing in history and international relations at United States International University (USIU), asserts that the dynamics unfolding between Dr. Ruto and Mr. Odinga in the country represent an evident reconciliation or agreement.
“The handshake deal was cut in Mombasa a long time ago, with (Olusegun) Obasanjo supervising. The rest are procedural matters,” Prof Munene says, adding that it could be the Deputy President’s Waterloo.
“Only Gachagua appears to be lost in the whole political power play,” Prof Munene says.
Addressing the crowd in Homa Bay town on Tuesday, Dr. Ruto strongly hinted that he was open to collaborating with Mr. Odinga, marking his most explicit signal of potential cooperation.
“There is space for all of us in Kenya; you do not win by making others lose. We want a win-win outcome for all of us,” he asserted.
Moses Kuria, the Public Service CS, contends that supporting Mr. Odinga’s candidacy is a duty that falls on the government.
“Raila is not a Ugandan or Tanzanian; he is a Kenyan and as a government we support him. He is a government candidate. A member state must endorse your candidature in that contest,” says the CS.
Dr. Ruto endorsing Mr. Odinga for the AUC chairperson position bears resemblance to his predecessor’s notable handshake, a move that might unsettle Mr. Gachagua.
Despite Dr. Ruto, the former Deputy President, vehemently opposing the handshake between Mr. Kenyatta and Mr. Odinga on March 9, 2018, recent events following a confidential meeting in Mombasa between him and the ODM leader, leading to the establishment of Nadco and the competition for the AUC top position, suggest a reconciliation or collaboration similar to a handshake.
Dr. Ruto and his supporters have openly voiced their opposition to engaging in another handshake with Mr. Odinga. Nevertheless, the only element yet to materialize is the public act of shaking hands.
The agreement between Mr. Kenyatta and Mr. Odinga, known as the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI), was based on their nine-point agenda. Additionally, Mr. Odinga was appointed as the Africa Union High Representative for Infrastructure.
During Ruto’s leadership, Mr. Odinga received the Nadco report, which tackled important concerns such as electoral justice and backing for his candidacy for the AUC chairperson position.
Despite repeatedly stating that he would not engage in a handshake with the opposition throughout his term, Dr. Ruto’s recent trip to Uganda unmistakably illustrates their friendly relationship.
Dr. Ruto also appears to have rolled out a red carpet for Mr. Odinga, allowing members of his Cabinet to brief him on “issues of national importance,” just as they did during the last administration, a move that Mr. Gachagua may not be comfortable with.
Jumwa meeting
On Tuesday, following her visit to Uganda, Cabinet Secretary for Gender Affairs, Aisha Jumwa, met with Mr. Odinga at his Capitol Hill office in Nairobi. The meeting included discussions with the multi-sectoral working group on the two-thirds gender rule.
“This is a clear indication of a working arrangement that has since begun and we should expect more,” a source in Mr Odinga’s camp disclosed.
The incorporation of the two-thirds gender rule was a key agenda discussed during Nadco meetings involving the teams of Dr. Ruto and Mr. Odinga. Subsequently, Charles Hinga, the Principal Secretary of Housing, convened a meeting with Mr. Odinga.
The gatherings resemble those observed during Mr. Kenyatta’s leadership, where even senior members of the Executive attended Mr. Odinga’s events.
Two weeks ago, Mr. Obasanjo disclosed how he facilitated a conversation between the factions of Dr. Ruto and Mr. Odinga, bringing an end to weeks of protests against the government.
In the company of Mr. Odinga, Mr. Obasanjo, who additionally endorsed the ODM leader for the position of AUC Commission chair in the upcoming year, revealed that he facilitated the agreement in Mombasa in July of the previous year.
Talking just before his encounter with Dr. Ruto, Mr. Obasanjo expressed satisfaction with the commendable work done by Nadco.
“Not too long ago, I was here with President Ruto and Raila and we went to Mombasa and the outcome of that exercise was five members each from the two parties to form a committee,” Mr Obasanjo said, referring to the Nadco team.
‘Deal’
Professor Munene contends that the agreement between Dr. Ruto and Mr. Odinga was sealed during the Mombasa meeting.
“Roping in Museveni is a Ruto-Raila achievement and Ruto should get credit for charming Museveni into being reasonable. Aisha Jumwa reporting to Raila is a Ruto way of uplifting Raila’s sense of political ‘arrival’, to DP Gachagua’s chagrin,” adds Prof Munene.
It’s important to highlight that Mr. Odinga’s association with the ex-president led to a rift with his deputy, who is now the president. Kenyans will now be closely watching Deputy President Gachagua to see what political steps he takes next.
“Only Gachagua appears to be lost in the whole political power play,” Prof Munene says.
Beyond Ruto-Raila Truce: Rigathi Gachagua’s Next Move
